Saturday’s UFC Winnipeg main event is a tale of two fighters heading in opposite directions.
In one corner there’s Canada’s Mike Malott who has won three in a row, while in the other there’s Brazil’s Gilbert Burns looking to snap a four-fight losing streak.
The 12-bout UFC Fight Night card takes place at Canada Life Centre with Burns looking to hold his No. 11 spot in the welterweight contender rankings. Burlington, Ont.’s Malott can leapfrog Burns and move into the 170-pound rankings if he gets his hand raised as the favourite this weekend.
Malott, 34, is a three-to-one betting favourite over Burns, according to BetMGM. The last time Burns closed as an underdog and won was nearly five years ago when he defeated Stephen “Wonderboy” at UFC 264.
The 39-year-old one-time title challenger has been the underdog in each of his past three matchups. Burns hasn’t been a betting favourite favoured since before his five-round decision loss to Belal Muhammad three years ago.
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Malott, meanwhile, has been the betting favourite in all seven of his UFC appearances. He is 6-1 so far with his lone loss being to Neil Magny in Toronto two years ago when Malott was also roughly a three-to-one favourite. Burns had submitted Magny in four minutes one year before Magny defeated Malott.
Fight fans will learn whether the above MMA math will prove relevant or irrelevant when Malott and Burns clash in the cage.
Malott is one of nine Canadian fighters scheduled to compete on the card. Seven are listed favourites and two are underdogs.
Projected bout order for UFC Winnipeg below (subject to change) plus full predictions. Canadian fighters are in bold…
MAIN CARD
-- Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott
-- Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain
-- Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert
-- Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Karine Silva
-- Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young
-- Dennis Buzukja vs. Marcio Barbosa
PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Julien Leblanc vs. Robert Valentin
-- Tanner Boser vs. Gokhan Saricam
-- Melissa Croden vs. Darya Zheleznyakova
-- JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth
-- John Castaneda vs. Mark Vologdin
-- Jamie Siraj vs. John Yannis
Ahead of each UFC event in 2026, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.
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Canada’s Mike Malott and Brazil’s Gilbert Burns headline a Fight Night in Winnipeg. Watch all the UFC action on Saturday, April 18 on Sportsnet 360 and Sportsnet+ with coverage beginning at 6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT.
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AARON'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Horth vs. Aldrich over 2.5 rounds -500
Favourite: Charles Jourdain -140
Underdog: Tanner Boser +140
Dart Throw: Jourdain by KO/TKO +450
I keep getting burned by these over picks in women’s bouts, but despite Horth recently scoring a finish, Aldrich is very difficult to stop and so is Horth. I expect this fight goes the distance. … Jourdain is the type of opponent that has given Phillips trouble in the past because he is a pressure fighter who will build and if he is able to extend the fight, he should be the victor. For my dart throw, I also think that Jourdain will be live for a KO/TKO finish in rounds two and three. … The returning Boser will face a newcomer in Saricam, who has fought good competition before signing with the UFC, but Boser is actually the younger fighter in this contest and has fought the higher level of competition. I think he has some great value as an underdog in this spot.
DAN'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Marcio Barbosa -450
Favourite: Melissa Croden -150
Underdog: Julien Leblanc +130
Dart Throw: Boser by KO/TKO +400
After going 4/4 with my predictions last week I’m going to get a little fast and loose with my picks this week. I don’t know much about Marcio Barbosa other than he faces an opponent who appears to be in a downward trajectory. It’s not a super chalky card so I’ll lock this in and save the research for other selections. … Melissa Croden has looked great since joining the UFC. She too good to fall to 1-2. I wouldn’t be surprised if she wins inside the distance, but an outright win at -153 is reasonable value. … I’m surprised Julien Leblanc is the underdog vs. Robert Valentin. I think Leblanc is level above his opponent here and the fact he is making his UFC debut may have impacted the moneyline here. … Finally, “The Bulldozer” is back and ready to attack! Tanner Boser looks to be in great shape and will undoubtedly swing for the fences or go down in a blaze of glory. Will be fun to watch!
MIKE'S PICKS
Cage Lock: Jasmine Jasudavicius to win outright -303
Favourite: Mandel Nallo -175
Underdog: Tanner Boser +140
Dart Throw: Gilbert Burns +900 by decision
Although Malott is rightfully favoured over Burns at this stage of their careers and based on recent results, the Canadian hasn’t done quite enough in the UFC yet to warrant being this big favourite, so even though he’s approaching 40 there is value on Burns, especially the longer the fight goes. … Karine Silva has been taken down at least three times in each of her past three fights, which should bode well for Jasudavicius who’s not lacking motivation following her loss to Manon Fiorot in October. … Jai Herbert is a skilled striker and a dangerous debut opponent for “Rat Garbage” but Nallo’s addition to the UFC lightweight roster is exciting and he has a plethora of finishing skills he’ll look to use. … Lots of live dogs on this card and I count Boser among them. I expect him to have a speed and movement advantage in this heavyweight bout on the prelims.
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Horth vs. Aldrich over 2.5 rounds + Barbosa + Jasudavicius
Parlay odds: -105 (to win: $95.08)
2026 STANDINGS AFTER 11 EVENTS
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
2026 record: 3-8 (L4)
2026 winnings: -$536.12 (on $100 bets)
AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (19-25, -3.35 units)
Cage Lock: 5-6 (-$499.94)
Favourite: 7-4 (-$15.33)
Underdog: 5-6 (+$130)
Dart throw: 2-9 (+$50)
DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (23-21, +4.95 units)
Cage Lock: 10-1 (+$56.81)
Favourite: 7-4 (-$66.58)
Underdog: 4-7 (-$145)
Dart throw: 2-9 (+$650)
MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (18-25-1, -13.46 units)
Cage Lock: 9-2 (+$11.10)
Favourite: 6-5 (-$87.56)
Underdog: 3-7-1 (-$170)
Dart throw: 0-11 (-$1,100)
Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.
Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.
Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.
Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.
(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)
