Incremental ups and downs. Flip-flopping standings. In, then out, then back in again. Welcome to this September's American League wild-card rollercoaster.
Some teams have all but dropped out of contention (Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners). Others are on life support (Baltimore Orioles). But the spread between the few teams still in the thick of it remains thin. A surge could separate one of them from the pack, but it could also stay this way until the final days of the regular season. And that's why we watch.
Since we last checked in, the Toronto Blue Jays have bounced between the third wild-card spot and two games out. But they have mostly trailed the Cleveland Guardians by one game as the two clubs have won and lost in lockstep. The Blue Jays and Guardians had identical 3-3 records last week.
Toronto climbed back within one game and stayed there with back-to-back emphatic wins over the Baltimore Orioles this past weekend. Now the Blue Jays will try to keep rolling when they host the Tigers for a three-game series starting on Monday.
Meanwhile, there's unrest in the AL Central, as the Guardians are only 0.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox for the division lead. The two teams are set to meet for a pivotal three-game set at Progressive Field. The White Sox have held onto first for over two months, last ceding it to the same Guardians with a walk-off loss on July 3, only to retake the top spot with consecutive wins over Cleveland. Now the South Siders are in danger of falling out of the playoff picture entirely.
And the Texas Rangers are lurking — one game back of the floundering Houston Astros in the AL West and two games back in the wild card — as they prepare to host the Boston Red Sox.
Bearing all that in mind, here's a look at the AL post-season race with two weeks remaining.
If the post-season started today
American League
No. 1 and AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays (90-59): Bye
No. 2 and AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox (76-73): Bye
No. 3 and AL West-leading Houston Astros (75-75) vs. No. 6 Cleveland Guardians (76-74)
No. 4 New York Yankees (86-63) vs. No. 5 Boston Red Sox (82-68)
Within striking distance
The Blue Jays and Rangers are the primary players on the outside looking in right now. Both will hope the AL Central rivals beat up on each other so they can take advantage.
The teams are coming off similar weeks, first losing series against lesser competition before rallying to win the final two of three on the weekend. Beyond those two, the Orioles, Twins, Tigers and Mariners are all between four and six games back with dwindling playoff odds.
Toronto uncharacteristically slugged its way past Baltimore, and even Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s long-dormant bat woke up to launch his first home run of the season at Rogers Centre — one of five for the Blue Jays over the two wins. Texas held off the Arizona Diamondbacks on the strength of some big swings by Corey Seager.
Both could be in playoff spots in two days. The Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker with the Guardians after winning the season series. The Rangers also edge the Guardians in a tie but need to beat the Astros outright in the West.
One thing to watch in three AL series with wild-card implications
Tigers at Blue Jays: Can Toronto's bats repay the favour?
While "Bullpen Day" has been a familiar middle-of-the-rotation arm for the Blue Jays this season, pencilling that name in twice is about as viable as doing it with any other starter. Trey Yesavage is on track to return in roughly one week, but they'll have to bear down and muscle through a second bullpen game in four days in Game 2 of this series, before starting unpredictable 42-year-old Max Scherzer on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the Tigers' offence has come alive lately, scoring 25 runs over their last three games. It stands to reason that the Blue Jays will need to score plenty of runs to be successful. They have recently, and they're positioned to keep doing so against Detroit's starters.
The Tigers will send right-handers Troy Melton and Drew Anderson to the mound for Games 1 and 2. Toronto's offensive struggles have been compounded against lefties (83 wRC+); meanwhile, they've been league-average vs righties (100 wRC+). Moreover, the Blue Jays have a minus-25 batter run value against sinkers, and Melton and Anderson hardly throw theirs (two per cent and nine per cent, respectively). Another four-seam-first righty, Keider Montero, could start the finale if he returns from the paternity list.
It's a recipe for Toronto's red-hot bats to keep thumping. The Blue Jays have been starved for power all season. Sunday's release turning into a sustained surge could be their key to October.
White Sox at Guardians: Can Chicago recapture its early-season magic?
Coming off three straight losing seasons, including a modern-era record 121 losses in 2024, the White Sox have been a feel-good story this year. They've turned it around ahead of schedule thanks to a roster full of youthful vigour.
A host of rookies and sophomores have led their unexpected about-face. Canadian Tristan Peters was an all-star and recently went on a five-game homer streak. Munetaka Murakami has 31 home runs — surpassing the previous benchmark of 22 for a Japanese rookie set by Shohei Ohtani — despite missing 35 games. Colson Montgomery and Grant Taylor have blown away opponents with their high-powered play.
But the White Sox have sputtered to a 4-9 record in September. Their run prevention has been average, but they've scored only 39 times in that span, a bottom-five mark in MLB. Peters hasn't gone yard since his remarkable streak. Murakami has only two home runs in his last 23 games. If the pair are hitting a rookie wall, they need to climb it soon to keep their division-title hopes alive.
Red Sox at Rangers: Can bullpen pull it together? Canadian Cal Quantrill continued the run of dominance that's seen him post a 1.80 ERA and six-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio since the start of August on Sunday. But the Rangers bullpen allowed five late runs and almost blew their lead.
It's been a concerning trend for the Rangers, who've had a bottom-10 bullpen in both ERA and strikeout-minus-walk rate since the deadline, when they failed to add meaningfully to the group beyond Slovakian-Canadian Adam Macko and Chase Silseth. Both have ERAs over 5.00 with Texas this season.
The Rangers will have to choose their matchups carefully and execute well against a Boston offence that has hit the cover off the ball post-deadline.
Playoff odds report
Here are the playoff odds for teams battling for post-season positions in the AL as of Friday morning, calculated by FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.
Tampa Bay's FanGraphs odds: 100% | Tampa Bay's Baseball Reference odds: 100%
Chicago's FanGraphs odds: 76.2% | Chicago's Baseball Reference odds: 86.6%
Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 76.7% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 87%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Cleveland's FanGraphs odds: 66.5% | Cleveland's Baseball Reference odds: 57.5%
Toronto's FanGraphs odds: 43% | Toronto's Baseball Reference odds: 42.7%
Texas’s FanGraphs odds: 31% | Texas’s Baseball Reference odds: 21.8%
Baltimore's FanGraphs odds: 1.5% | Baltimore's Baseball Reference odds: 2.1%
Seattle's FanGraphs odds: 4% | Seattle's Baseball Reference odds: 0.9%
