How Berube’s Maple Leafs stack up against Keefe’s heading into playoffs

There’s a sense around the Toronto Maple Leafs that things feels different this year. 

After a half-decade of high-flying, highlight-reel hockey, the Leafs have built a different vibe, a different identity. Since taking the reins in May, head coach Craig Berube has reshaped the club in his image, preaching since Game 1 an approach grounded in straightforward, north-south, defensively accountable hockey.

Auston Matthews spoke of the shift in mentality Thursday night, as his club’s division-clinching regular season wrapped up with a comeback win over the Detroit Red Wings.

“I just think the style of play that we’ve been playing is suitable for the post-season,” the captain said. “Just being direct, making sure that we’re forechecking well, taking care of the puck when we have to. Just doing the right things in both ends.

“I wouldn’t say the style has changed dramatically, but I definitely think there’s certain areas and certain parts of the game that we’ve keyed on, and tried to be better in.”

In December, we took stock of how that style was shifting, stacking up Berube’s Leafs through the first third of the season against Sheldon Keefe’s squad through the same number of games a year prior. The early inklings of that change already seemed underway, the Maple Leafs already leaning more towards an approach reliant on stout defence rather than offensive showcases.

With Game 82 in the books, and the regular season now wrapped, we have a full-season sample to see how it all shook out over a full campaign. That in mind, let’s check back in to see how Berube’s Maple Leafs fared over the course of his first full season at the helm compared to Keefe’s squad last year:

Over a full campaign, the trends that had begun to build through the first third of the season held. Big-picture, this is a Maple Leafs team that scores fewer goals, but allows far fewer as well. The key difference compared to December is that the offence eventually did come for Berube’s squad.

In the early going, the Maple Leafs seemed content to play low-event hockey, scoring little but holding the opposition at bay. They sat in the bottom half of the league offensively, while ranking among the best on the defensive side of the puck. By the end of the year, they worked their way up to top-10 league-wide on both fronts.

Offensively, Toronto’s 3.26 goals per game this season rank seventh best league-wide (a step down from their second-place ranking under Keefe last season); defensively, their 2.79 goals against per game ranks eighth best league wide (a significant improvement over last year’s squad, which ranked 21st).

The biggest shift has come at 5-on-5. The Maple Leafs’ special teams numbers balanced out by year’s end to finish roughly where they did last year, their power-play and penalty-kill success rates just a hair better than last season. But at 5-on-5, after leading the league with 200 goals last season, Berube’s Leafs rank 12th with 169 to their name. On the other hand, after ranking middle-of-the-pack defensively, allowing 168 goals-against at 5-on-5 last year, Berube’s Leafs have allowed only 136, the third-fewest.

It’s no mystery that elite goaltending — particularly from Anthony Stolarz, who heads into the post-season with the best save percentage from a Maple Leafs netminder in half a century (a league-leading .926) — has been crucial to the club’s success. That seems aligned with the team's overall approach — the club is shooting less, scoring less and allowing roughly the same number of shots against as it did a year ago. Though the Maple Leafs' defensive approach has shifted too, the key difference seems to be that their netminders have stood tall, keeping them in games.

The view of the Berube Leafs as a more rugged, physical, defensive juggernaut isn’t necessarily accurate, though. The club threw the body much less than they did a year ago, blocked roughly the same number of shots, gave away the puck much more, took away the puck much less and took fewer penalties.

But Berube’s impact seems to have been less about turning his players into bruisers, and more about teaching them to control a game — to be physical, tighten up and hold a lead when needed, and to adapt to what the game gives them, rather than looking to unleash the full weight of their offensive potential at all times.

That seems to have been borne out by the way they’ve won games.

Berube’s Leafs have done a far better job of holding onto leads. Their win percentage when leading after the first period rose from .793 last season (ranking 12th) to .897 under Berube (second-best). More importantly, their win percentage when leading after the second period rose from .854 last year (14th) to .946 under Berube (fourth-best).

The Leafs also showed a greater ability to come back in games — their win percentage when trailing after the second period rose from .143 last season (17th) to .290 under Berube (second-best). 

Alongside that improved ability to control games, Berube’s Leafs seem better at navigating close games, too. Their win percentage in one-goal games sat at .543 last season, ranking 10th — this season, no NHL club won a higher percentage of one-goal games, the Leafs ranking first with a .733 success rate (and tying for second with 22 one-goals wins). Similarly, their win percentage in two-goal games sat at .400 last season (25th) — under Berube, that’s improved to .667 (fourth-best).

That improved ability to pull a win out of a game decided by a single goal seems especially crucial given how things tend to go in the grind of the post-season — and how the playoffs have gone for Toronto specifically. Rewind through the club's recent post-season record, and they've found themselves having to navigate one-goal games at the most crucial times, year after year — the final three games against Boston in 2024; four of five games against Florida when they finally made it to Round 2 in 2023; the final three games against the Lightning in 2022.

There might not be a more important aspect of Berube's impact than the improvement shown in those narrow, hard-fought games.

On the other side, these Maple Leafs seem to have a tougher time scoring their way out of trouble, winning the track-meet games — but that seems a trade-off the Maple Leafs faithful are likely willing to take. The club has tried the other route — going all-in on offence, hoping their crew of dynamic scorers would will them to the later rounds of the post-season. It never quite took. In the biggest moments, in the biggest games, with the season on the line, the goals never came. Now, it seems Berube has these Leafs taking the opposite approach — slow, steady, methodical and by committee.

Whether that’s enough to find meaningful playoff progress remains to be seen — their current means of winning seems to rely in no small part on Stolarz remaining elite. Still, there’s no question there’s been a shift in mentality. Sunday, when the puck drops on Game 1 of their next playoff test, we’ll see how much that truly moves the needle.