More than four weeks have passed since Josh Donaldson last appeared in a game for the Toronto Blue Jays, and he’ll now spend at least three more weeks on the sidelines after suffering a setback while rehabbing his injured left calf.
To state the obvious, this is troubling news for both the Blue Jays and their star third baseman. Even though the 2018 Blue Jays are 11.5 games out of a playoff berth, the trade return for a healthy Donaldson would still help future editions of the team. Now there’s no guarantee they’ll convert him into prospects.
As for Donaldson, the next three weeks would ideally be spent showing teams that he’s worthy of a substantial free agent contract this off-season despite a relatively slow start. Instead, he’s sidelined through the all-star break.
Clearly, 2018 won’t play out the way the Blue Jays and Donaldson wanted, but there are still a few ways the season could unfold from here.
DONALDSON’S TRADED BEFORE JULY 31
While technically possible, this scenario is hard to envision. The Blue Jays said they’ll re-evaluate Donaldson on July 17. Even if his calf has healed fully by then, he’d likely need some rehab games before returning. Let’s say he plays in five, starting during the major-league all-star break, and returns for the July 23 series opener against the Minnesota Twins. That’d give Donaldson just seven games before the July 31 trade deadline.
Could Donaldson show enough in those seven games to convince a contending team to part with impact prospects and take on a $23-million salary? He hit five homers in five days last August and five homers in three days last September, so you can’t completely rule it out.
At the same time, deadline buyers might simply turn to alternatives such as Manny Machado and Mike Moustakas instead of placing a huge bet on a player who has already missed more than half of the season due to shoulder and calf issues. Plus, Donaldson might need more than three weeks to recover, and that would effectively eliminate the possibility of a trade – at least for a while.
DONALDSON’S TRADED IN AUGUST
There’s a scenario where an August Donaldson trade makes some sense. Though most impact trades happen ahead of the July 31 non-waiver deadline, some star players are traded afterwards, as the Astros showed last year when they acquired Justin Verlander at the last possible second in a deal that helped Houston win the 2017 World Series.
Players traded in August are still playoff-eligible, they just have to be placed on waivers before a deal’s completed. If a player clears waivers, he can be traded anywhere, one reason high-salaried players are often involved in these deals (speaking of which, Ben Cherington, now a VP with the Blue Jays, orchestrated one of the more memorable August trades, sending Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto to the Dodgers in 2012). If a player’s claimed, his team can either pull him back or work out a deal with the claiming team within 48 hours.
While it’s far too early to say how teams would respond if Donaldson ends up on waivers, it’s conceivable that he could clear – particularly if the Blue Jays put him through early in August when questions could still linger around his health. In the scenario that Donaldson clears waivers early in the month, the Blue Jays could later trade him without restriction if he returns to form. And, as the Tigers showed by acquiring prospects Daz Cameron, Franklin Perez and Jake Rogers for Verlander, intriguing talent can change hands after July 31.
DONALDSON SPENDS THE ENTIRE SEASON IN TORONTO
Though trade speculation has followed Donaldson for well over a year now, there’s also a path where he doesn’t get dealt. His calf and throwing shoulder have already proven problematic this year; if those issues persist, he figures to spend the rest of the season in Toronto.
Even if Donaldson returns to form, waiver trades are tough to complete. It’s possible that a team with limited interest could claim him simply to ensure that he doesn’t end up with a rival. Good luck completing a deal in that case. And realistically, even teams with serious interest might hesitate to meet the Blue Jays’ asking price. It’s possible that they just won’t align with other teams.
As the summer unfolds, the Toronto front office will have to weigh any offers against the potential draft pick that they’d recoup after the second round if Donaldson declines a qualifying offer to sign elsewhere. Complicating matters, the Blue Jays wouldn’t have a clear place to play Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2019 if Donaldson were to accept a QO, nor would they obtain a compensation pick.
That’s looking further ahead than necessary, though. At this point the best possible scenario for all involved looks to be a full recovery followed by a trade of some kind. That would allow the Blue Jays to add prospects for Donaldson, who could then perform in the post-season before entering free agency uninhibited by draft pick compensation.
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