Let’s suppose you took Alex Anthopoulos at face value last week when he said that he was looking beyond starting pitchers as possible trade targets this year. I know, everything in that last sentence seems wrong, but come along for the ride.
(In passing, I’ll note that I don’t think that Anthopoulos has really taken his eyes off of starters. I also don’t think that he’s playing possum or spinning. I think that he recognizes that he’s got work to do with this roster, and doesn’t think that adding one or two starting pitchers is the only way to right this ship. I’m sure after answering questions about starting pitchers for nine months, you start to reflexively resist the question.)
Much of what has happened in the past two weeks would have told you that Anthopoulos was looking in the wrong direction for help, what with the number of first inning deficits the starting staff has surrendered. But by the end of the weekend, with four regulars hobbled but still on the active roster, you start to recognize that maybe finding an extra hitter or two might not be a bad idea.
If you’re going to go down this road of speculating on who might make sense for the Blue Jays, and you’re not simply casting wishes out into the universe, there are a few steps to take in order to make a reasonable guess on who might be available and at the right price.
First, you need to narrow down the field of who might make players available. In the era of two Wild Cards, there aren’t many teams that would count themselves out of a race, but you could reasonably look at the Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks as sellers, with other clubs not far from joining them.
Next, you need to consider the Jays’ needs. It’s likely quite evident that either a second baseman or a third baseman would help, especially with Brett Lawrie’s fingers looking particularly ouchy. I’d also throw in an outfielder who can play all three positions as a secondary priority, because the Jays are exceedingly thin at the position.
Finally, you need to be realistic. Given the Ervin Santana mess, it seems unlikely that the Jays take on significant salary unless it is for a player that they’d see as a long-term investment. So don’t hold your breath, Dan Uggla fans. Also, you’d imagine that even poorly performing teams aren’t going to give up much more than spare parts. Players with upside or who might be part of a rebuilding process aren’t going to be shipped out, especially given the ability of teams in recent history to turn their fortunes around in a single offseason.
So what you’re left to find are the cheap, superfluous players on losing teams who are better than the Jays’ own inexpensive spare parts. Hardly the sort of move that excites the fanbase, but maybe just enough to help the Jays hang in through the last three months of the season.
Here are a few guys who just might fit the bill.
Luis Valbuena, 2B/3B, Cubs
one year/$1.7 million remaining on contract, arbitration eligible through 2016
The Blue Jays lost Valbuena in a roster numbers game at the end of spring training in 2012, and the 28 year-old Venezuelan has gone on to have a decent stint with the Cubs. He’s posted a .341 OBP and .737 OPS in 2013 and 2014 combined, and his performance has improved this year with more regular playing time (.359 OBP, .784 OPS.) That number is inflated by a .336 batting average on balls in play, but a respectable 12.7% walk rate adds to his appeal. He’s a lefty whose numbers are actually better against arm-side pitching.
Drew Stubbs, OF, Rockies
one year/$4.1 million remaining on contract, arbitration eligible through 2015
Another guy with some BABIP-inflated success so far this year who has thrived in the offensive haven of Colorado, Stubbs could still be a decent option off the bench or at the bottom of the lineup, especially if injuries sideline one or more of the outfielders. When healthy, the Rockies have an overabundance of outfielders, and Stubbs will likely be excess cargo when Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer eventually make their way back from injury. Stubbs strikes out a lot, but could offer a good pinch running option off the bench.
Seth Smith, OF, Padres
one year/$4.5 million remaining on contract, free agent eligible after 2014
A personal favourite from his time in Colorado and Oakland, Smith has been one of the few bright spots for an otherwise grim Padres offense. Posting a .398 OBP and .524 slugging percentage despite the dampening effects of Petco, Smith could be a smart piece for the new management team in San Diego to move before he walks in the offseason. His 14.0% walk rate and 16.8% strikeout rate are the best showings of his career, though not so far off his career rates (10.4 %/19.0 %) as to seem completely unsustainable. He’s not an ideal fit in Toronto given that he’d serve as a lefty DH/LF/RF, but he could serve as important insurance given Jose Bautista’s current leg injury.
Chase Headley, 3B, Padres
one year/$10.5 million remaining on contract, free agent eligible after 2014
A name that’s been linked often to the Jays in the past, Headley’s days in San Diego seem likely to be numbered given his recent reluctance to work out an extension. There’s plenty of dirt smeared on his rep after he produced below expectations last year following a 31-homer season in 2012. His results look lousy this year (.283 OBP/.333 SLG), but his rate stats don’t seem that far off from his good seasons. On a rental basis, it would be fascinating to see him move into a more neutral offensive situation. With a healthy Lawrie at second, he could be a significant and more disciplined upgrade over Juan Francisco.
Chris Denorfia, OF, Padres
one year/$2.25 million remaining on contract, free agent eligible after 2014
I still hold a grudge against Denorfia for the way that he tore up Canada in the Rogers Centre at the World Baseball Classic. He’s also been a thorn in the Jays’ side when he has faced them in recent years. The 33 year-old lefty masher puts up quiet and frankly unspectacular numbers, but as a back up at all three outfield positions and with a career .337 OBP and .403 slugging, he might just be the veteran embodiment of Kevin Pillar’s eventual ceiling.
Gordon Beckham, 2B, White Sox
one year, $4.5 million remaining on contract, arbitration eligible through 2015
It’s hard to believe that Beckham is only 27, because it seems as though we’ve been constructing scenarios that send him to the Jays for more than two decades. A good-to-very-good fielder who has never quite lived up to his offensive promise, Beckham still offers league-average output (.325 OBP with a .420 slugging percentage in 2014), which looks even better when plugged into the yawning hole that exists at second when Brett Lawrie is at third. You could even make a decent argument that Beckham tops Lawrie with the stick this season.