The NBA standings may be in flux — in the East just one game separates the Heat, Wizards, and Bucks for the Nos. 6-8 seeds, while out West the playoff race looks like it will come down to the final game of the regular season, with only three games separating the Nos. 3-9 seeds (!!!) — but there’s far less ambiguity when it comes to how the NBA’s awards landscape will shake out.
James Harden has had the MVP award all but locked up since what feels like Day 1 of the regular season — but LeBron James is hot on his heels. The Rookie of the Year race has been as riveting as it’s been in years, with Ben Simmons holding court as the favourite and Donovan Mitchell closing the gap seemingly every night.
But there are still plenty of worthy debates and close calls to be made with less than a handful of games remaining on the schedule.
Here’s a look at my NBA awards ballot as we enter the final week of play (winners in bold):
Most Valuable Player
James Harden, Houston Rockets: The case for Harden is quite simple. He’s been the best player on the NBA’s best team and a legitimately dominant offensive force. He’s improved greatly on the other side of the ball, too, and has his Rockets look like the West’s biggest threat to Golden State since the Warriors began their run atop the league.
While his passing totals have dropped slightly with the addition of Chris Paul to his team, Harden leads the NBA in a number of key categories, including points per game (30.6), three-pointers made (259) and basketball-reference‘s win shares, which measures a player’s affect on winning.
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers: It’s unbelievable what James is accomplishing in Year 15 since entering the NBA. Surrounded by one of the worsts rosters he’s played on to date, the greatest player in the game today has responded by putting up career numbers, averaging the most rebounds (8.7) and assists (9.2) he ever has to go with over 27 points per game (third in the NBA).
The Cavs improved at the trade deadline, sure, but remain an unproven (and almost always injured) group that has relied as heavily on James to work his magic than any LeBron-led team has. He’s responded by taking over big games, including Thursday’s 17-point fourth-quarter comeback victory over potential playoff opponent Washington, in which James scored 13 of his 33 points down the stretch. No player elevates those around him like James does, and his passing has gone to another level this season.
The analytics favour Harden over James, and the Rockets’ superstar is likely to win the award — he should’ve won it last year as well. But given the context and the weight of this latest chapter in the legacy of the defining player of his era, I’m giving the (slightest) nod to LeBron.
Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans: No player does more with less. Looking at the Pelicans roster it’s a shock that they’re in the West’s playoff race. And then you remember that they have Davis, whose ceiling is higher than just about any player in the game, and it all makes sense.
Davis consistently puts up monster numbers — he’s second in scoring this year (28.2 ppg), fifth in rebounds (11 rpg), and for the third time in his six seasons leads the league in blocks by a healthy margin (2.5 bpg) — and has managed to play over 70 games for the second consecutive season after having never accomplished the feat before. The Pelicans are ten games above .500 and have weathered the loss of an all-NBA talent in DeMarcus Cousins, and it’s all thanks to the Brow.
Other nominees: Damian Lillard, DeMar DeRozan, Kevin Durant.
Sixth Man of the Year
Fred VanVleet, Toronto Raptors: DeMar DeRozan wants his team’s backup point guard to be considered for the award, and for good reason. As the engine of one of the most impactful bench units in the NBA, VanVleet has carved out a meaningful role on the East’s best team. He’s the Raptors’ top three-point shooter at 42 per cent and provides a steady hand when he’s on the floor, which has generally come to include crunch time sharing the backcourt with Kyle Lowry. Those high-pressure situations have seemed to suit VanVleet just fine:
Fred VanVleet DRAINS the game winner! #WeTheNorth pic.twitter.com/bjBODXi4E0
— NBA UK (@NBAUK) March 8, 2018
When you dig into some more numbers — plus-minus and net rating aside — VanVleet’s case weakens a bit. He doesn’t average double-digit scoring, and barely cracks 20 minutes per game on the season, but for those who have watched the Raps night in and night out there’s no denying how crucial he’s been to the team’s success.
Eric Gordon, Houston Rockets: The reigning holder of this award, Gordon has been even better this season, upping his scoring average to over 18 points per game, while helping to elevate the play of his team as well. He’s shooting the three ball at more or less the same rate, but has been far more efficient on two-point field goals. Otherwise we’re seeing the same kind of production across the board for a player who deservedly took the award home in 2017.
Lou Williams, Los Angeles Clippers: He may have cooled off slightly since leading the NBA in points scored for the month of January, but Lou-Will has been lights out for the Clippers all season and should have been an all-star.
He’s emerged as L.A.’s top scorer — a career-best 22.5 ppg in his 13th season — and has embraced his newfound status as a go-to player. The Clippers have no real business fighting for a playoff spot, but Williams is a big reason why their post-season hopes are still alive. He should cruise to his second Sixth Man of the Year award this year. Lock it in.
Rookie of the Year
Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz: The 13th pick in the draft, Mitchell is one of a small handful of youngsters proving to be ready to take the reins of his own team. He’s emerged as Utah’s go-to-scorer and holds the key to how much noise they’ll make this post-season. It’s amazing the way he balances between recklessness and controlled mayhem, toying with defenders like a seasoned pro. We’ll all have a blast watching Mitchell throughout his career as he hones his game.
Mitchell leads the Jazz with 20.4 points per game, and joins Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Larry Bird and David Robinson as the only rookies in NBA history to lead a team with at least 45 wins in scoring. Decent company.
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics: One of the brightest stars in a loaded rookie class, Tatum has helped carry the Celtics with established stars like Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward out of the picture. Tatum has few real weaknesses, but it’s his three-point shooting that separates him from his peers, shooting an absurd 43 per cent from deep.
Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers: A first-overall pick who is living up to the hype, Simmons has genuinely dominated both ends of the floor for much of this season while doing an excellent job of masking his flaws (outside shooting) and making the most of his strengths (everything else). The Sixers keep winning games with Joel Embiid out of the lineup, and Simmons, who has gotten better as the season wears on, is a major reason why Philly is a team nobody in the East wants to face in the playoffs.
Defensive Player of the Year
Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz: Despite having only played 53 games so far, it’s not hard to measure how important Gobert’s defensive presence near the basket has been for the Utah Jazz.
Utah gives up roughly eight more points per 100 possessions when Gobert is off the floor, and the big man’s ability to defend the paint has a trickle effect on the way teams play the Jazz, who have been one of the West’s hottest teams in 2018 and one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this season.
Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans: A true two-way force, Davis is the catalyst to just about everything the Pelicans do right offensively, and the same is true of his impact on the other end of the floor. He’s also the only centre in the top-15 in steals per game (1.5) this season.
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers: While he’s sidelined until the playoffs, Embiid more than doubled his games played total from his rookie season, and it’s helped propel the Sixers firmly into the post-season. Despite their youth, Philly is the NBA’s fourth-best defensive team, and Embiid is a big reason why. He’s sixth in the league in blocks per game, but no other NBA player has more success playing one-on-one defence under the basket, where Embiid limits opponents to less than 50 per cent shooting from close range.
Other nominees: Al Horford, Robert Covington, Andre Roberson
Most Improved Player
Steven Adams, Oklahoma City Thunder: Adams has quietly emerged as their second-most important player behind Russell Westbrook, edging newcomers Paul George and Carmelo Anthony (lol) in that regard. A bullying force below the rim, impressively mobile running the floor, and the smartest screener in the league, Adams is the NBA’s poster boy for doing the most for a team while taking up the least amount of spotlight.
Victor Oladipo, Indiana Pacers: Like Harden’s MVP front-running, Oladipo has long been a favourite to win this award after taking a massive leap this season. Not only has he upped his scoring by over eight points per game to over 23, but he also leads the NBA in steals (2.3) and is taking more shots than any other year while registering his highest shooting percentage to date (47.5 per cent). Most importantly, he has the Indiana Pacers sitting comfortably in a playoff spot – something few if any anticipated when he was traded for Paul George last summer.
Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons: Drummond has addressed his biggest weakness by going from a historically bad free throw shooter (38 per cent) to a respectable 61.5 per cent. He’s seeing more court time than ever, and, despite serious holes on the roster, has his team just outside of a playoff spot. Drummond has also improved on his best attributes, leading the league with 16 rebounds per game and flashing good playmaking instincts from the post. There are a lot of issues the Pistons need to address to become contenders in the East, but Drummond isn’t one of them.
Other nominees: DeMar DeRozan, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dario Saric, Pascal Siakam.
Coach of the Year
Quinn Snyder, Utah Jazz: Snyder has maximized the skills of his best players, handed the reins to a rookie guard, unleashed Ricky Rubio’s potential, and turned a roster of role players into a crushing defensive unit that has shaken off a poor start to the season to win 30 of their last 40 games.
Dwane Casey, Toronto Raptors: Not only did Casey show an ability and willingness to adapt when he rather dramatically changed his team’s style over the course of one summer, but he’s also managed minutes and rotations better than ever. He and his staff deserve a ton of credit for the team’s surprisingly impactful second unit and the way the young players on his roster have stepped up this season and embraced the challenge of playing meaningful minutes and roles.
Brad Stevens, Boston Celtics: The Celts have been decimated by injuries at seemingly every juncture this season, yet Stevens has managed to turn his roster — which featured 11 players that weren’t there last season — into the NBA’s top-rated defence. Like Casey, he and his staff deserve credit for the way they’ve maximized a roster of young and mostly unproven talent and remained in a tight race for first-place until the final week of action.
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