It’s starting to feel a bit like déjà vu, but there’s yet another sub-.500 opponent on the docket for the Toronto Raptors tonight—their fifth in the last six games. Of course, those five games against losing teams all ended in Raptors’ wins. But while the team seemed to be merely surviving last week against the likes of Milwaukee and Philadelphia, they’ve been thriving this week, capped by Wednesday’s second-half desecration of the Sacramento Kings.
Yes, the crappy competition is helping, but watch the Raps play—their motion, ball movement, energy off the bench—and Casey’s team really looks to have turned the corner after an ugly start to the month. Among the promising trends over the three games played this week is the defensive improvement: Toronto is forcing an average of 15 turnovers per game and holding opponents to 37 percent from deep and 44 percent on two-point shots (while shooting 50.7 percent themselves). So despite the recent concern in Raptorland, a win tonight means Toronto finishes January above .500 for the month.
Facing a Brooklyn Nets team that has lost three straight and 11 of their last 13, anything but a win will be an abject failure for the Raptors. In those last three losses, the Nets have allowed 114 points per game, while managing to score just 86 per over that same span (which included a 123-84 blowout loss to the Clippers in Los Angeles).
I repeat: In their last three games, the Nets have lost by an average score of 114-86. But they’re co-hosting All-Star weekend, and one of their players is in the DUNK CONTEST(!!!!!) So life’s not all bad.
Projected starters
Raptors: Kyle Lowry*, Greivis Vasquez, DeMar DeRozan, Amir Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas
Nets: Jarrett Jack, Joe Johnson, Bojan Bogdanovic, Mason Plumlee, Brook Lopez.
*denotes All-Star starter
Last time
The Raptors soundly beat the Nets 105-89 in a largely forgettable game at the Air Canada Centre in December. Kyle Lowry ran the show, posting 20 points and 12 dimes, while six Toronto players managed to score in double digits. Mason Plumlee shone for Brooklyn, dropping 23 points on 9-of-13 shooting, and Mirza Teletovic—out for the season with a medical issue—torched the Raps with four three-pointers.
Is it the shoes?
After a (very) rough patch following his return to the lineup, DeMar DeRozan has played like his old self this week, averaging 20.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, four assists, 1.7 steals and nine free-throw attempts over his last three.
The Raptors opponent, in one video
Seriously, have you looked at this roster?
Monitoring Minutes
One of the more fascinating ongoing things to follow with the Raptors team has been Dwane Casey’s distribution of minutes.
With a deep, versatile bench at the coach’s disposal, floor time been pretty erratic for many of the Raptors’ reserves. On Wednesday, Chuck Hayes got 13:32 minutes of burn—the second most he’s seen this season—but that had more to do with the DeMarcus Cousins matchup than anything else. Terrance Ross is averaging less than 20 minutes a game since being demoted to the bench last week. However he managed an effective 13 points in 15 minutes on Wednesday, which could translate to increased run tonight. Greivis Vasquez is coming off his sixth 30-plus minute game this season, one in which he was white hot, going 4-of-5 from beyond the arc. James Johnson, meanwhile, continues to be the odd man out since DeRozan’s return. That being said, if Joe Johnson gives DeRozan fits tonight (like he did in last year’s playoffs), this could be a most opportune time to bring Johnson back into the fold.
A little more about the Nets
For my money, the Nets are the most depressing team in the NBA. Plumlee aside, what’s there to cheer for? Brooklyn is paying Johnson, Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Kevin Garnett a combined $69 million this year (that’s just $11 million shy of the entire Raptors roster). Those first three plus Jarrett Jack are all under contract next season for a combined $67 million, and all are either in serious decline, unable to stay healthy or both.
The problem is, aside from Plumlee (and even then…) there are no blue-chip trade assets. There’s also, obviously, no cap room to work with, meaning that there is no real fix in sight. Factor in the sleepy stage lighting at Nets home games, the quiet crowds at Barclays Center and those dull black-and-white jerseys, and there’s not a whole lot to be excited about if you’re a Nets fan.
Monstars assemble
Against one of the biggest starting frontcourts in the NBA, the Raptors’ rotation of bigs will have their hands full tonight. Facing similarly massive Detroit Pistons Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond on Sunday, the Raps starters—Jonas Valanciunas and Amir Johnson—rose to the occasion, scoring a combined 37 points down low (Valanciunas chipped in with 11 rebounds and three blocks). Toronto will need a big outing from those two again tonight against Lopez and Plumlee.
Lopez has been a frustration for Brooklyn fans, who have seen plenty of flashes of his ability (enough that the team felt the need to give him a four year, $60-million extension in 2012) combined with plenty of stretches of his inability to stay on the floor (something that hurts his trade value). Lopez has missed 10 games this season, and is averaging an uninspiring 15 points and six rebounds, the lowest totals since his rookie year.
Plumlee, on the other hand, continues to show real signs of growth. Halfway through his second pro season, (depending on how you feel about Bojan Bogdanovic) he’s the lone bright spot on the Nets roster.
Warning! Danger ahead
It could be a challenge focusing on tonight’s divisional matchup, considering the Raptors are in Washington tomorrow for a crucial game against the Wizards, who continue to jockey with them for a coveted top-three spot in the East.