Each Friday of the 2018 NFL playoffs, we’ll be picking every game against the spread.
Here are the picks for the Conference Championships.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3)
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET
The Pick: Rams
The first of the conference finals is a rematch of an epic Week 9 clash that saw the Rams rally from 21 points down only to surrender a 72-yard touchdown to Michael Thomas as the Saints won 45-35, a result that ultimately led to home-field advantage for Sunday’s game.
Will that home field actually be an advantage? The Saints are 7-2 in New Orleans so far this season, so their record suggests it will be. But the Rams have been one of the league’s best road teams this season – they’re 6-2 away from the Coliseum – and gave New Orleans a run for its money at the Superdome in early November.
But this pick, in my opinion, will come down to the Saints offence, which has been held to 20 or fewer points in four of its last six games. Facing the likes of Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh and Michael Brockers, Drew Brees could be thrown off his game. And if the Saints are unable to sustain long drives, that Rams offence will pounce.
Prediction: Rams 30, Saints 24
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET
The Pick: Chiefs
Another rematch of a 2018 regular-season classic, the Patriots leave the confines of Gillette Stadium – where they’re 9-0 this season – to face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on the road, where New England is just 3-5 so far this season.
But, as we’ve learned time and time again, we should never count out the Patriots. Last week’s domination of the Chargers was New England’s best game of the season, which could mean a run to another Super Bowl title could be in the cards.
Kansas City’s offence will garner a lot of attention in the lead-up to this game, but the key to getting the best of New England will be Chris Jones and Dee Ford, the Chiefs’ pass rushing duo that combined for 28.5 sacks in the regular season – more than any other duo in the NFL. If Jones and Ford, along with Justin Houston, can get after Tom Brady (which has always been the key to success against TB12), it will likely be the difference.
Prediction: Chiefs 34, Patriots 21
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