With Edmonton’s forward corps set for the foreseeable future, the Oilers have locked up a key member of their blue-line for another pair of campaigns, too.
Darnell Nurse, he of a 41-point campaign last season and 24 points through 55 games this time around, signed on for two more seasons at $5.6 million per year, Sportsnet confirmed Sunday and the team made official on Monday.
With the $11.2-million deal in tow, the Oilers have Nurse, Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson under contract for next season, along with currently injured veteran Kris Russell.
For the 25-year-old Nurse, drafted seventh-overall by the Oilers back in 2013, the new deal represents somewhat of a departure from the norm, at least for blue-liners. While most expected Nurse to go the way of his contemporaries and sign a long-term extension after playing out his last two-year bridge deal, the young Oiler instead decided to bet on himself once again — perhaps a wise choice given the recent breakout year suggesting he’s just now becoming the big-league force he’s been expected to be.
So, how does Nurse’s contract stack up against the rest of the league’s blue-liners? The fit seems to be somewhat unique given the myriad factors involved: Nurse’s seemingly high ceiling, the time it’s taken him to blossom at the NHL level, and the Oilers’ undeniable need for marquee defencemen.
That said, let’s take a look at a few deals around the league that help put Nurse’s new contract, particularly its length, in context:
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Charlie McAvoy, Boston Bruins (Three years, $4.9 million per year)
A few recent signings hover near the Nurse deal, but aren’t exact matches situationally. Young Bruins defender Charlie McAvoy, for example, signed a three-year contract last year that carries a $4.9-million cap hit.
Also a first-round pick, and a young, offensive defender with seemingly a high ceiling, McAvoy’s deal clocks in at a lower cap hit despite being a better offensive talent through his first few years in the league (his 0.47 points-per-game pace from the back end besting Nurse’s career 0.34).
However, McAvoy’s contract comes right after his entry-level deal, with the bridge pact representing the first chance for him to show the Boston brass where exactly he ranks among the game’s defenders. Nurse, on the other hand, is now heading into his second such contract. The Oilers rearguard signed a two-year bridge deal coming out his own ELC in 2018, and now heads into another prove-me situation.
The 41-point campaign, undeniable size (Nurse clocks in at six-foot-four, 221 pounds) and yet-to-be-reached ceiling earns him a higher cap hit than McAvoy, but the young Bruin could hit a higher payday earlier in his career depending on how his next deal turns out.
Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets (Three years, $5 million per year)
Columbus’ Zach Werenski presents a similar nearly-there comparable. The Blue Jackets defenceman will earn just a shade under Nurse for the next two seasons, as he’s currently playing out the first season of a three-year deal with an annual cap hit of $5 million.
Werenski’s been a far better offensive weapon than either McAvoy or Nurse thus far, debuting with a 47-point effort as a rookie and adding 81 points over his next two seasons. Like the other two, he doesn’t rank as the club’s No. 1 option necessarily, with Seth Jones seemingly holding that role in Columbus.
But like McAvoy, Werenski’s deal comes right after his ELC, giving him his first chance to prove his long-term worth for Columbus. At 22 years old, he still gets the benefit of being somewhat unproven, as compared to the 25-year-old Nurse.
Justin Schultz, Pittsburgh Penguins (Three years, $5.5 million per year)
Interestingly, one of the most unexpectedly similar comparables might be a former Oiler, Justin Schultz.
After a successful move to Pittsburgh that rehabilitated his career, Schultz signed on for a three-year deal with the Penguins in 2017, earning a $5.5-million cap hit after emerging as a solid top-four presence behind Kris Letang and Brian Dumoulin.
The path to the deal was of course quite different, with Schultz going the college route, signing on in Edmonton, moving to Pittsburgh and playing out a total of four short-term deals before getting to this current one (in which he’s currently playing out the final year). But Schultz’s role with Pittsburgh during this three-year stretch seems to land similar to Nurse’s — a No. 2 or No. 3 defenceman who can move into a bigger role when needed, and hints at the ability to be a No. 1 (as Schultz did during the second of Pittsburgh’s back-to-back Cup runs during Letang’s asbence).
Schultz similarly played out a number of prove-me deals before getting to his current spot, where he’ll likely be in for a significant raise moving forward — not quite as much as Nurse, who will be younger when his deal expires and brings more to the table in terms of physicality.
Ryan Murray, Columbus Blue Jackets (Two years, $4.6 million per year)
A few other situations around the league lay out a similar path as Nurse’s, with defenders who’ve played out a few short-term deals before getting to where they are now, in the ballpark of the Oilers blue-liner.
Columbus’ Ryan Murray is in the first half of a two-year pact carrying a $4.6-million annual cap hit, an even million below Nurse’s, to be expected given his performance in the league thus far.
Murray similarly played out his entry-level deal, then signed a two-year bridge deal and then one more short-term deal — that one for one year and the same cap hit as his bridge, $2.825 million.
Injuries have limited his ability to fully prove his worth during those short-term pacts, leaving him at $4.6-million on another shorter deal. The path to that most recent deal isn’t a direct mirror of Nurse’s, given how the latter’s cap hit has climbed on each one, but it does serve as a reminder of the inherent risk in the route Nurse is taking with Edmonton.
Matt Dumba, Minnesota Wild (Five years, $6 million per year)
On the other side of this path’s coin is Minnesota’s Matt Dumba, who’s begun flirting with the Norris conversation in recent years.
The 25-year-old’s path to his current deal mirrors Nurse’s more closely — Dumba played out his ELC and then signed a two-year bridge deal carrying a cap hit of $2.55 million (just below Nurse’s $3.2 million). However, when it came time to ink that third deal, Dumba chose the more conventional long-term option.
Coming off a monster 50-point campaign, Dumba landed a five-year deal at $6 million per year, slightly higher than Nurse’s, and with the security of being signed up until 2023.
The first season of Dumba’s new contract saw him put up a dominant 22 points through 32 games before an injury cut his sterling campaign short. He’s since struggled in his return this season for the Wild, putting up 18 points and a 47.6 Corsi For percentage at even-strength through 55 games in Minnesota.
Of course, whether he gets back to that Norris-esque level at all, or takes time to do it, Dumba’s secure for the foreseeable future having capitalized on his breakout year in the form of a long-term deal.
Jacob Trouba, New York Rangers (Seven years, $8 million)
In Rangers defender Jacob Trouba, we get a look at Nurse’s possible endgame.
The former Jet went down somewhat of a similar path as Nurse, playing out his ELC before getting a similar two-year, $6-million deal from Winnipeg. He wound up playing out one more short-term deal — awarded via arbitration a one-year contract at $5.5 million, a similar cap hit as the one attached to Nurse’s name for the next two seasons.
Unable to reach an agreement on a long-term deal with Winnipeg, Trouba was eventually traded to the Rangers, where he then inked a massive seven-year contract worth $8 million per year.
Production-wise, Trouba similarly chipped away at steady progress on short-term deals until breaking out with a 50-point effort in in 2018-19 before cashing in on his long-term contract.
In signing another short-term deal, it’s fair to assume Nurse is similarly banking on himself to earn the type of premier long-term pact Trouba’s currently playing out the first year of. As seen in the above deals, the risk for the Oilers blue-liner is falling short in proving himself as a legitimate top-pairing talent within these next two years. For the Oilers, the risk is moving Nurse closer to unrestricted free agency without getting him under contract long-term — and, of course, potentially having to pay top dollar in a couple years if he continues to raise his game as expected.
For now, though, the Oilers have Nurse back in the fold for two more years as their star forward duo continues to dominate the league, giving Nurse ample opportunity to prove he’s worth a greater role and a greater deal.