A deep dive into George Springer’s slow start at the plate

Since George Springer joined the Toronto Blue Jays, his age has often been mentioned in relation to his durability, but not necessarily his performance.

Giving a six-year contract to a player entering his age-31 season invites discussion about possible production decline, but Springer seemed to be aging gracefully. He was coming off the two best offensive seasons of his career, and indicators like Sprint Speed suggested he was firmly in his prime. 

In his first two years with the Blue Jays the outfielder has generally delivered on expectations when healthy, but so far in 2023 he’s struggled. There are some mitigating factors behind his .209/.272/.302 line as he dealt with an illness early in May — and he’s experienced his fair share of bad luck, with his wOBA of .259 sitting well below his xwOBA of .325.

Even so, Springer’s early numbers this year have included signals that have to be discouraging for the Blue Jays. His power has been all but absent so far as he has just four home runs to his name — and his ISO of .094 is the worst it’s ever been over a 35-game span since he joined the team.

Those results are supported by contact-quality numbers that are unquestionably in decline. For one thing, Springer’s exit velocity is lower than it’s been in any year of his career.

Average exit velocity hasn’t always been the best metric to judge Springer by considering he’s been one of the MLB’s most dynamic power hitters without ever sitting above the 77th percentile in it. 

Using something more directly related to production like xwOBA on contact gives us a better idea of how dynamic the balls coming off Springer’s bat are. By that metric, his quality of contact has declined in every season since 2019, with a more significant drop off over the last two years.

On a positive note for Springer, his max exit velocity this season (115.9 mph) is tied for the second-best mark of his career, so he hasn’t completely lost the capacity to unleash elite-level power.

Consistently doing so has been an issue, though.

One place that stands out is in his work against four-seam fastballs. That particular pitch is important as Springer has been one of MLB’s best four-seam hitters in recent years, but the results haven’t been there in 2022.

Springer is running the losing whiff rate against four-seamers he’s had in his career (19.0 per cent), so it doesn’t seem like he’s getting blown away. If anything, it’s possible he isn’t cutting loose enough.

Another indication that Springer’s contact quality isn’t quite right is that he’s pulling the ball significantly less than usual. His current pull rate of 35.1 per cent would be the second-lowest number of his career — and traditionally Springer’s ability to turn on the ball has correlated with his power output.

These numbers, combined with walk and strikeout numbers that would both be career lows if they hold, paint the picture of a hitter who might be prioritizing putting the ball in play over scorching it. 

Whether that’s because Springer doesn’t feel like the power is there — or his poor early-season results has led to a lower-risk, lower-reward plan of attack as an adjustment — is hard to say.

The good news for the outfielder is that his numbers will look a lot better if his luck balances out, and his max exit velocity suggests he still has plenty of power to tap into. 

Springer’s start to 2023 has been hampered by factors beyond his control, but it also follows a pattern of power decline that he’s quietly demonstrated for years despite quality results. 

There’s reason to believe he can bounce back, but for the first time in his Blue Jays career he’s opening the door to doubt about what level of performance he can achieve when he’s on the field.