What has to go right for Blue Jays to justify deadline push

TORONTO — Baseball people like to say it’s a long season and it’s true, but the end-game can sneak up quickly.

For the 45-51 Toronto Blue Jays, there are just 66 games remaining and only 16 before the Aug. 3 trade deadline. The time to win is now.

Big picture, they’d have to finish 38-28 to win 83 games and match the lowest total ever for a wild-card team. If they’re going to reach 85 wins — the lowest ever total for an American League wild-card team — they’ll have to finish 40-26.

First things first, though: the Blue Jays have a couple of weeks to prove to GM Ross Atkins that this roster merits further investment. Otherwise, anything could be on the table, including trading away key members of last year’s World Series team. 

From a front-office perspective, the only logical approach is to operate on multiple fronts, preparing to adapt regardless of the playoff picture on Aug. 3. At field level, it’s all about banking wins.

To get to the trade deadline at .500, the Blue Jays would have to go 11-5, something they’ve done on one occasion this season (May 13-29). Given the state of the America League, they could buy even if they’re below .500, but they can’t wait long to start climbing back into the race. For instance, if they go 8-8 over their next 16 games, they’d then need a 30-20 finish to reach 85 wins.

Banking on two months of .600 baseball from a team that’s often struggled would be a wild leap of faith Atkins might not be able to justify, putting pressure on the team to win immediately. With that in mind, a 9-7 or 10-6 record between now and the trade deadline seems like the absolute minimum if the Blue Jays are going to buy. To do that, here’s what has to happen on the field:

More consistent starting pitching 

Too often this year, the Blue Jays have fallen behind due to poor starting pitching. To gain ground in the standings, they’ll need that to change.

That means they need Shane Bieber to find a level of consistency that has mostly eluded him in his four starts back from the injured list. To his credit, Bieber took a step in the right direction on July 10, limiting the Padres to just two runs while striking out four.

But while Bieber might be stabilizing, Trey Yesavage is coming off the worst start of his MLB career. He couldn’t find the plate Saturday, throwing a first-pitch strike to only one of the 13 hitters he faced while walking seven and throwing only 20 of 59 pitches for strikes. 

Afterward, he spoke about making an adjustment to his posture to fix his release point. Given the standings, the Blue Jays need that fix to work sooner than later.

Along those lines, they also need continued health from Spencer Miles as he pushes his career-high workload further and further; they need continued quality starts from Kevin Gausman, who introduced a new windup Sunday; and though he’s the least of their worries, the Blue Jays need more of the same from Dylan Cease following an All-Star first half.

Improvement on offence

As the first half of the season came to an end, manager John Schneider would often point to positives on offence, such as the two home runs Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit on the team’s latest road trip or George Springer’s 105 m.p.h. line drive against Mason Miller.

Mix in Kazuma Okamoto’s power production and the recent contributions of Jonatan Clase, and the Blue Jays do have reason for optimism here. Unfortunately, others have slowed down, with Alejandro Kirk, Brandon Valenzuela, Daulton Varsho, Yohendrick Piñango and Myles Straw all mired in month-long slumps.

They don’t all have to hit at once, of course, but the fact remains that the Blue Jays have outscored just three teams this season. If they’re going to contend, that has to change now. 

Attention to detail

Nearly 100 games into the 2026 season, it’s best to assume this edition of the Blue Jays is not a juggernaut. With that in mind, this team needs to handle the details better and flip its 11-17 record in one-run games. 

That means:

• Fundamentally strong defence: Make the routine plays and ideally more difficult ones, too.

• Better pitch selection by pitchers: Trust Kirk’s game-calling behind the plate or have a very good reason not to. For instance, Mason Fluharty shook to throw Ty France a sweeper last weekend and France hit a game-changing home run.

• Better pitch selection by hitters: Guerrero Jr.'s chase rate is a career-worst, but it's not just him. Varsho and Andres Gimenez are among the MLB leaders in chasing pitches outside the strike zone.

• Attentive baserunning: Some outs on the bases will happen, but the Blue Jays can ill afford lapses in attention.

• Holding runners better: As Jeff Hoffman showed Sunday, there’s a real cost to letting baserunners run wild. He and his teammates must do a better job of preventing opponents from taking extra bases.

These so-called little things add up, and may make the difference in a crowded American League playoff race.