It’s been a profoundly middling season for head coach Nick Nurse and the Toronto Raptors. So much so that Nurse is publicly pondering a sabbatical from the NBA.
Yet here they are, with a chance to win a pair of games against Chicago and Miami, two teams whose offensive woes have been equally profound, to make the playoffs. If they can do that, this Raps squad is uniquely situated to give No. 1-seed Milwaukee some serious problems, with their “Fred VanVleet plus a team of six-foot-eight guys” roster. Let’s not look too far ahead though, because it’s do-or-die for the Raptors Wednesday night.
The stakes are less high in the West. Well, the stakes are the same on paper, but Oklahoma City and New Orleans are still probably a year or two ahead of schedule.
These two games are going to be an interesting study in the two things that NBA playoffs games often come down to: Toronto and Chicago should be a good old-fashioned rock fight, while OKC and New Orleans will feature two of the league’s best isolation scorers trying to impose their respective wills on the game.
These four teams are a combined two games under .500, but the basketball will still be fun. There is simply nothing in all of sports like a win-or-go-home game.
Let’s bet on it!
Chicago Bulls (+6, +200) at Toronto Raptors (-6, -240): 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT
Let’s get one thing out of the way. With the game total at 212.5, this is one of the quickest UNDER (212.5) bets I’ve made all season. The Raptors the fourth-worst shooting team in the NBA, and Chicago has been the league’s best defence (by defensive rating) since Jan. 1. Plus, the Bulls are 24th in the league in offence for the season.
Points will be at a premium in this one. That will be especially exacerbated by the fact that Chicago’s most efficient scorer, DeMar DeRozan, will have to try to work his midrange magic against the best isolation wing defender in the world in O.G. Anunoby. In a game where points will be hard to come by, I trust the playoff savvy of VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and the playbook of Nurse more than I trust DeMar and Zach Lavine to get it done.
Especially against a team full of players who may as well have been engineered to stop guys like them. Give me Toronto (-6). I had them at -5.5 late last night, but I don’t mind where the line has settled.
I like Alex Caruso OVER 5.5 points, with the Raptors likely keying on making anyone but DeRozan and Lavine beat them. That’s only 2-3 buckets, and Caruso will likely play big minutes on VanVleet. I’m also going with Fred VanVleet UNDER 18.5 points, simply because he often struggles shooting over taller guards, and I’m not giving him the benefit of the doubt against Caruso after the worst shooting season of his career.
Oklahoma City Thunder (+5.5, +180) at New Orleans Pelicans (-5.5, -220): 9:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. PT on SN360
New Orleans has been here before. Last year, they made the playoffs as the No. 8-seed after playing in this very winner-take-all play in game. Despite that, it’s tough to think as this team as particularly experienced, outside of C.J. McCollum.
This game is likely going to come down to one matchup: Herb Jones guarding Canadian star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. If Gilgeous-Alexander can cap his breakout season with a significant win in that matchup, the Thunder are in business. If not, I don’t think they can score enough to keep pace with the Pels, who have three guys (McCollum, Brandon Ingram and sharpshooter Trey Murphy) who can go for 30-plus on any given night.
I’m betting on Oklahoma City (+5.5) because the points are too good to pass up, and Gilgeous-Alexander’s game of crafty finishes and midrange jumpers is tailor-made for the playoffs. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see New Orleans run away with it, especially if Murphy (who posted a Steph Curry-esque 65 per cent True Shooting as a rookie this year) can get going.
I’ve got money on Herb Jones OVER 0.5 threes made, a number he’s topped in six of his last seven games, and since I’m picking OKC to win, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 32.5 points. I also like Brandon Ingram UNDER 30.5 points, both because Luguentz Dort is a problem and because I think the Thunder’s gameplan is going to be to switch everything and force the ball out of his hands.
The Sicko Same Game Parlay for Tonight earns its name, at +4000
Toronto Raptors Money Line
Game total UNDER 212.5
Alex Caruso OVER 0.5 made threes
Alex Caruso OVER 5.5 points
Pascal Siakam OVER 25.5 points
Fred VanVleet UNDER 18.5 points
Scottie Barnes UNDER 15.5 points
As always, play safe and don’t chase.