Back in February, the Cincinnati Bengals stunned the NFL world by going from a lottery team to Super Bowl surprise in just a single season. And in doing so, Joe Burrow & Co. blew away even the boldest of predictions for the year.
Therein lies the bold-prediction conundrum: In a league that has conditioned us to expect – and embrace! – the unexpected, it’s nearly impossible to predict anything at all. That’s also what makes this league so much fun.
Since September alone, we’ve seen Geno Smith become one of the most accurate arms in the league while Russell Wilson falls apart in Denver, last year’s Champions start Baker Mayfield while their division rivals make Mr. Irrelevant the most relevant man in the NFC West and Tyreek Hill and Patrick Mahomes both hit career-best numbers after parting ways.
So, with that in mind and with equal(ish) parts logic and daydreaming about what might just be waiting for us when the calendar flips over to 2023, here’s a handful of bold predictions centred around some of the top expected storylines of the year ahead.
Burrow brings Bengals back to the Super Bowl… and wins, this time
There was no bigger surprise during the 2021 season than the Super Bowl-bound Bengals. And when their September started with a series of stumbles and injuries for February’s runners-up, that success just six months earlier felt all the more like the stuff of lore.
But the Bengals are back, and Joe Burrow’s got them in position to pounce once again thanks to a win streak that’s seen them sprint back into the playoffs, officially clinching a playoff spot in Week 16. Burrow kept the team afloat during absences to top target Ja’Marr Chase and, at times, Joe Mixon and despite playing behind a still-porous offensive line. That he sits second in passing yards (4,260), touchdowns (34) and completion percentage among starters (69 per cent) while taking the fourth-most sacks (39) speaks to just how big a difference-maker he continues to be.
Impressive as it is, it’s not all that rare these days to see a team appear in back-to-back Super Bowls. The last team to do it was the Kansas City Chiefs, who made a return trip in February 2021 after winning the year prior.
The last team to rebound from a Super Bowl loss to win it all the following year was the New England Patriots, who actually sandwiched a loss to the Eagles in February 2018 between a pair of victories in 2017 and 2019.
Burrow’s proven himself to be one of the best QBs in the league, at the helm of a diverse group of weapons with the secret to defeating the AFC favourites in Kansas City. It might just be time for a Bengals parade.
Sean Payton and Drew Brees reunite… on the Arizona Cardinals’ sideline
Among the many questions that emerged over the course of the 2022 season, Sean Payton’s next chapter in coaching – namely, when and where that might begin – has remained front-of-mind. New Orleans’ long-time head coach stepped away from the Saints’ sideline following the 2021 season, concluding a successful 15-year tenure that saw him tally a 152-89 record.
He’s made it pretty clear ever since that his coaching days aren’t over, and it’s also been made crystal clear that wherever he does land next will be entirely his choosing.
So, where to?
The Denver Broncos’ firing of Nathaniel Hackett on Monday, which cut the rookie head coach’s first season short, added another franchise to the Sean Payton sweepstakes. And while that’s an intriguing destination – not to mention, a perfect set-up to be heralded a hero alongside a rebounding Russell Wilson after a disastrous 2022 – a report from ESPN’s Adam Schefter suggests Payton’s keen to add former Broncos coach Vic Fangio to his all-star cast of assistants when he returns to coaching. That makes Denver seem unlikely.
But let’s talk about another team that made a mess of 2022 and should have a job opening or two: The Arizona Cardinals. The team entered the season with newly-signed contracts for quarterback Kyler Murray, head coach Kliff Kingsbury, and general manager Steve Keim – all three of which felt like signings that came way too soon considering the trio hasn’t actually won anything. Less than a year into those new deals, Murray’s sidelined with a serious knee injury after putting up underwhelming numbers, Kingsbury’s seat is basically on fire, and Keim has taken a leave of absence due to health reasons.
This is a team that’s in desperate need of someone to step into this front office and onto the sideline and forge an identity for the franchise. That Murray has been in the league four years and we still don’t actually know who he is or what he can do is an indictment of all involved. Who better to take the helm than one of the most respected and experienced coaches in the game right now? And, who better to help him mentor an undersized QB brimming with talent and recovering from a major injury than Drew Brees? Brees joined Purdue’s coaching staff earlier this month ahead of Bowl season, and that (predictably) set off a series of speculation that it might not be long before we see him on an NFL sideline as a QB coach. A reunion with his long-time head coach would be a fitting way to start.
Signing Payton will require a hefty paycheque, but that’s not all. Because the Saints still own his right due to Payton “retiring,” any team that wants to hire him will need to flip some compensatory picks to New Orleans.
Brock Purdy starts the season as 49ers’ QB1
Just like in the summer of 2022, the upcoming off-season is poised to see another significant swirl of the quarterback carousel. There are, after all, already some pretty compelling names to consider: Tom Brady is set to be a free agent, Lamar Jackson’s contract situation remains unresolved, Zach Wilson’s days as a starter may be over already, and Baker Mayfield is playing for his future in L.A. with every snap, to name a few. But the most intriguing team when it comes to the QB1 position is the club that currently has three of them.
The San Francisco 49ers were supposed to belong to Trey Lance this year, but when the 2021 first-rounder fell to a season-ending injury the reins were handed back to Jimmy Garoppolo. The reliable (if, at times, unremarkable) arm guided the club into position to take over the top spot in the NFC West but then suffered a season-ending injury of his own, which meant Kyle Shanahan turned to the final pick of the 2022 draft – a.k.a Mr. Irrelevant – Brock Purdy. Any ideas of the 49ers faltering with the third stringer at the helm have long been disproven, as Purdy is now 3-0 as the team’s starter after stepping in in relief in Week 14 (another win). He’s averaging two scores a game, has thrown just a single interception as a starter, and has quickly proven himself capable of being a locker room leader. But can he steal the starting gig in 2023, too?
Yes, he can. Here’s why: The 49ers cannot enter the 2023 campaign with all three of these arms on the roster, and the name most likely to be moved is Jimmy G. Let’s say New York comes calling. The Jets are in need of a ready-made starter who need only score enough to let the defence win games – hmm, that sounds familiar! – and head coach Robert Saleh is plenty familiar with the 49ers QB.
Lance, meanwhile, hasn’t yet really had his opportunity to prove Shanahan right for trading up to draft him, and his long rehabilitation plus the great NFL learning curve could see him take longer to jump into that leading role.
And all the while, Purdy’s making the most of his time in the spotlight with a win-now team that’s best off riding the hot hand.
Patrick Mahomes passes Peyton Manning’s single-season passing record and has us all on 6,000-watch
In his six years in the league, Patrick Mahomes has already been to two Super Bowls, won one, and has a well-stocked trophy case. And in 2022, he’s going to make some pretty impressive history. Ten years after Peyton Manning tallied 5,477 passing yards with the 2013 Denver Broncos, Mahomes – whose 5,097-yard 2018 campaign is good for 10th on the single-season passing list – takes his game to yet another level, passing Manning for the best year yet.
The question then will be: How close can he get to 6,000? Dan Marino was the first quarterback to hit the 5,000-yard mark when he lit up the league with the Miami Dolphins in 1984 to the tune of 5,084 yards – a record that still sees him ranked 11th in the single-season history books. (He broke Dan Fouts’ 4,802 yards, registered three seasons earlier, on his way to that feat.)
After 15 games this year, Mahomes is averaging nearly 315 passing yards per game, which has him on pace for his best season total yet at 5,348. That would rank him third on the all-time list of single-season totals, passing Tom Brady’s best mark of 5,316 from last season.
Mahomes’ career average so far through six seasons as a starter is 304 yards. In order to get himself on pace for 6,000 he’d have to average about 353 yards per game – a leap, to be sure. It’s very possible we never see a player reach that number, but it’s going to be really fun to watch QBs like Mahomes set new standards as they try.
After the league added an extra game to the regular season last year, it feels like it’s only a matter of time before records really start to fall – keep an eye on that single-season receiving record, for example. The league has never had a 2,000-yard receiver, but it won’t be long before that changes – it could even be this season, if Justin Jefferson – currently sitting at 1,756 with two games to go – finishes strong.
The Detroit Lions lock up the NFC North by Christmas time 2023
Unless you’re a diehard fan of one of their fiercest divisional foes, chances are you’ve found yourself rooting for the Detroit Lions at some point in 2022.
Considering their passionate-but-long-suffering fanbase, charismatic (and quotable) head coach and the fact that just a year ago we all watched their long-time franchise face win it all in sunny L.A., the club presents a pretty compelling case for being the best underdog story going. But those underdog days will soon be over because in 2023, they’re ready to tuck away that narrative and finally (!) make the leap from the NFC North’s basement right up to the top tier.
The 2022 campaign has been a tale of two seasons for Detroit, who after starting off 1-6 have clawed their way back and now sit at 7-8 with a glimmer of post-season hopes ahead of them.
Of the Lions’ eight losses on the season, six of which came in the first half of the season, six have been lost by a single score – and all of those came against quality opponents currently sitting in or just outside the playoff picture.
The second-half Lions have proven themselves to be a team with elite line play on both sides of the ball, a staunch run squad, one of the league’s most dynamic and underrated catchers in Amon-Ra St. Brown, and some really clean play from Jared Goff. Goff, now in his second year with the Lions, is making good on his second chance and is the only starting quarterback in the league to have gone the last seven games without throwing an interception.
They’re also poised to have a top-five pick in this spring’s draft and are entering an era of NFC North football that feels like it’s due for a new leader after watching Green Bay looking vulnerable this season and the Vikings reluctantly take over the top spot. The last time the Lions finished atop their division was 1993, when it was called the NFC Central division. It’s been even longer since they last won a playoff game (1991 season) but based on their current projections it shouldn’t be long until that streak is snapped. The future looks bright for these Lions.