TORONTO — The Toronto Maple Leafs will hit the halfway point of their regular season this weekend, so it feels like the right time to unload some general thoughts on where they are at, and where they’re going.
We’ll start with Thursday night’s game, and then get more general.
The Maple Leafs lost to the New York Islanders in a game where the Leafs controlled the bulk of play at 5-on-5. At all strengths, SportLogiq had the Leafs with eight Grade A chances, and five Grade B chances, while the Isles put up six Grade A’s, and just one Grade B.
Toronto didn’t get Martin Jones’ finest showing and their special teams were crummy, so they only got one point for a quality effort. But what stood out to me most was … what the heck happened on that OT winner?
I was pretty rough on ol’ Jake McCabe in the group chat, trying to figure out how you get put on the ice with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner in OT — clearly to be the defensively responsible guy — then blow a coverage so bad off a faceoff that your guy just goes straight to the net and scores.
But upon further review, Matthews actually wins the draw hard towards McCabe, which I didn’t see in real time. Watching live, it seemed like it went straight back to the Isles’ point, but it rips into McCabe’s skate, which makes him hesitate while having a running monologue of something like: “Where is it can I play it, uh-oh it’s going to the point, oh no my man is gone.”
So, it wasn’t just your run-of-the-mill blown coverage, but a weird hiccup that caused a mental glitch. He darn near got back in position but Mathew Barzal made an unbelievable play to redirect this home.
McCabe isn’t fully excused, but it was a weird moment.
Putting that one aside, though, this article’s first official “thought” is:
Jake McCabe has become a really important player for the Leafs
He typically finishes with their third-most ice time, they trust him in important situations, and frankly, he’s got some utility on the offensive side of the puck now. When he joined the Leafs, he was the “grit and hit” guy, but he’s gotten more comfortable, rounded out his game, and has become a crucial piece of a D-corps that desperately needs all the help it can get.
OT failings
The Leafs have gone to overtime more than any other team in the league, with a whopping 16 of their 39 games needing extra time. They’ve been good in the shootout, winning four of the five they’ve been in. Of the 11 games they’ve played that have ended in overtime, they’ve only won four and lost seven. On its face, going to OT 16 times with Matthews, Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares and Morgan Rielly, and winning just four times before the shootout, seems extremely strange.
However, I’m not exactly sure it is all that strange. OT is a wait, wait, wait, NOW quick burst event on offence, but that has to be set against a backdrop of defensive awareness. I played my son in “Connect 4” the other night and got so enamoured with my great offensive plan to win, it was only when I had lost I realized I hadn’t once considered what the other side had cooking. And yes, he’s seven years old, and I am not a smart man.
Point is, the Leafs operate in OT like I did in Connect 4. You have to be aware of your opponent’s positioning. Toronto’s eventual breakdowns often come after an offensive “almost,” and they just do not seem to be a team, yet, that takes the time to do real risk/reward analysis before mashing “go for it.”
This matters, because…
Leafs fans will get a standings dogfight
On Real Kyper and Bourne last season, we proclaimed in late November that the Leafs were destined to play Tampa Bay in the first round. Maybe the call was early, but it was right. By January, it was a near certainty. That meant three-plus months of “none of these games matter, let’s talk about how it affects their playoff chances.”
After Thursday night, the Leafs are six points back of Florida for second in the Atlantic, but with two games in a hand.
They’re seven behind Boston, also with a two games in hand, and the Bruins have the hardest remaining strength of schedule in the NHL.
If Toronto can win one or both of those “in hand” contests, they can be just a few points out of the top spots in the division with half a season to go. Further to that, though, the Tampa Bay Lightning have won their past two games in dramatic fashion, and while they’re still well back of the Leafs (three points, but with four more games played), they’re still the Lightning, and this Lightning team has the softest remaining schedule in the Atlantic Division. Heck, Detroit’s not much further back either, and it’s not impossible that they’ll continue to win more than they lose.
In sum, points will matter. The Leafs could still finish anywhere from first to fourth in the division, which should keep things fun for a while here as it remains a mystery who their first round opponent will be this time. What a delight.
Bobby McMann can rip it
I clarified in a follow up tweet to the below that “great” may be excessive, but when McMann was still in the AHL I had tweeted about the quality of his shot. Watch the pace on this one:
He had 21 tucks in 30 AHL games last season.
Having a guy like McMann on the fourth line who you aren’t counting on to score, but who — if the puck finds him some random nights — can absolutely laser it past goalies is the sort of thing in a playoff round that makes teams go “Oh man our stars didn’t have it tonight, we really needed that surprise one from the fourth line.”
It’s not a great development for Ryan Reaves, but it’s a lot easier to see how the Leafs will need what McMann can bring when the chips are down.
Which brings me to this point …
The Leafs are starting to have a fourth line that makes sense
If you look at the most recent Stanley Cup champions, just about every team had not just a useful fourth line, but a fourth line that was content to be the fourth line and executed that role to a T. The Leafs have had some mash-up of Jason Spezza and/or Joe Thornton and/or Wayne Simmonds and a few other curious fits in recent years. Only last year, when they had guys like Noel Acciari and Sam Lafferty, did they finally win a playoff round (not that that was the reason, but it didn’t hurt).
I’ve always believed your fourth line is best filled by bigger, mobile, prime-aged fringe guys full of energy and passion to prove they belong. Guys like Keegan Kolesar and William Carrier did a great job for the Vegas Golden Knights last season.
McMann is 27, big, he skates well, and he can shoot it. Pontus Holmberg is a strong guy who Matthews and Marner are calling an “underrated talent” in a big frame who makes good decisions. Obviously, David Kampf is a luxury item if he’s playing on your fourth line given his utility. It’s a group of players that simply works in your bottom-six, given their assignment.
I don’t doubt that the Leafs will make some deadline moves that bump one or both of McMann and Holmberg to the 13th forward spot come playoffs. And if that’s true, it’d be some really nice depth to have in case of injury.
The good and the bad of Mark Giordano
I really enjoy watching Mark Giordano play hockey. The play he makes on this Nylander rush is the type of confident, patient look you just don’t get from most third pair guys. It’s still a Norris-brained offensive play, the way he holds the goalie with a shot-lean before the pass.
There are still going to be those moments where you’re reminded that Giordano’s 40 and it’ll cost the Leafs. But at least he’s starting from a foundation of having an elite hockey brain, and he mostly knows how to compensate where he doesn’t feel quite as comfortable as he used to.
I’d love to see the Leafs genuinely use him as a third pair guy. I’m talking 15 minutes a night. Right now it seems too hard, as they trust him too much to leave him on the bench. But if he’s one of their six in the playoffs, they better keep him rested.
Tyler Bertuzzi isn’t going to shoot pucks in from distance
Marner gets a fairly hard time for having an unthreatening shot, but Tyler Bertuzzi, boy, I’d be curious how many NHL goals he’s scored from outside 15 feet. It can’t be a dozen. Sometimes, like on this play below, it’s tough to imagine he’s ever done it.
Bertuzzi shoots from in front of his body, almost more of a flicking motion. I know he’s scored a lot of NHL goals, and he still can. But the more I watch him the more I realize any goals he scores will come from in tight, so I need to see him in the crease more often. You can’t earn $5.5 million in the Leafs’ top-six playing alongside true stars and score just 13 goals, which is his current pace. They need more out of Bertuzzi offensively.
And speaking of shooting …
A moment to appreciate Auston Matthews’ goal-scoring
It is truly freakish to one-time a puck this hard, and so accurately, that it only hits the top of the net and not the back…
And the next night to demonstrate hands this pillowy soft:
Abnormal!
The man is on pace for 70 goals. I wouldn’t rule it out.