It’s not a matter of if Alexander Ovechkin will surpass Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record, but when.
After a hat trick the other night, Ovechkin has 800 goals and is less than 100 behind Gretzky. Barring something unforeseen, he should break the record sometime in the next two years.
Ovechkin is also closing in on another Gretzky record for a stat that I think is often overlooked in fantasy hockey: most empty-net goals. The Washington Capitals winger had four empty-net goals in a three-game stretch last week and has 13 since the start of last season. An empty-net goal in fantasy is worth the same as one scored on a goalie, but often much easier to produce. Keeping those numbers in mind for players such as Ovechkin or Zach Hyman, who seem to be on the ice with the opposing goalie pulled and are hungry to score, is a good tidbit of information to consider when drafting.
A goal is a goal.
Let’s get to your questions:
What’s the chances of a P Kane trade this season?
I can’t say it’s 100 per cent because it really seems like Patrick Kane loves being a Chicago Blackhawk, but a trade seems more than likely. As much as Kane would probably like to remain with the franchise, Chicago isn’t going to be competitive anytime soon. Kane is also in his mid-30s and won’t have many more seasons to take a run at a championship, so playing on a contender is paramount. Should he get dealt at the deadline, expect Kane’s value to jump just in time for the fantasy playoffs.
I’m not entirely sure the criteria they use, but it’s the rating for the matchup for the player on that given night. So, for example, if you have a forward who’s playing a strong defensive team or maybe a goalie such as Igor Shesterkin, they might have a lower rating. Or, if it’s someone playing one of the teams at the bottom of the league that gives up a lot of goals like the Anaheim Ducks, they may get a higher rating.
Demko worth a hold or is it ok to drop him?
If you’re struggling for roster space and don’t have room on the IR, you could move on from Thatcher Demko. Is it possible that Demko comes back in a month or so and he and the Vancouver Canucks make an incredible turnaround? Sure. That’s a longshot, though, and your fantasy team might not have anything to play for by then. Given the length of Demko’s injury and the way he played earlier in the season, you’re better off grabbing someone who can help you right now.
I think these three players are all very comparable and ranking them is almost like flipping a coin. If I’m splitting hairs, though, I’d go with Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt and Anze Kopitar. I have the two New Jersey Devils ahead simply because I think the Devils will be a higher-scoring team than the Los Angeles Kings, and I have Hischier ahead of Bratt because of his shots on goal. That said, you can’t really go wrong with any of them.
You could try it as a short-term option to see where it goes. James van Riemsdyk’s line with Morgan Frost and Owen Tippett had a really good two-game stretch for the Philadelphia Flyers recently, combining for 11 points. I’m skeptical, though, of how long they can keep this up, as van Riemsdyk hasn’t hit the 50-point mark since the 2017-18 season.
If there was a Most Valuable Fantasy Hockey Waiver Wire Pickup award, Pyotr Kochetkov would win it.
What do you think of Brodin? Does he have a shot at PP?
I like Jonas Brodin a lot as a player, but not so much for fantasy. He’s one of those steady defensemen you don’t notice too often, which is a good thing. The problem is most defensemen who play the way Brodin does don’t have a skill set that translates well for fantasy hockey. He has only four points this season and besides blocked shots, nothing else about his game is really going to make an impact for your squad.
Filip Zadina is now 23 and getting close to beyond what would be considered still a prospect. He hasn’t made the most of the opportunities he’s been given, so I’m not holding my breath that Zadina will have a breakthrough. If you have the roster space, you could keep him around for a bit longer to see if his game picks up, but he was even getting healthy-scratched earlier this season. Zadina has a long way to go to become fantasy relevant.
It’s always good to try to look for ways to improve, even in your position. That said, I’d hesitate to make any of these significant deals, so as to not upset the apple cart too much. The only one I’d consider is Cole Caufield for Chris Kreider, as Caufield is on pace for 49 goals this season, while Kreider’s numbers have regressed a fair bit from last season. There’s upside with Caufield if you think Kreider won’t pick it up. I don’t see any of the other two deals as a decent step up for you.
It’s a bit early for that. You still have to get to the playoffs and maintain your position at the top of the league, so trading a player like Aleksander Barkov who will help you do that might be overthinking it. Also, I don’t like moving high-end players just to get more playoff games. I’d rather look at the edges of your roster and see what depth pieces you can shuffle around to give you a few extra games without losing significant value. Again, I don’t think I’d start doing that until a few weeks prior because so much can change (injuries, trades, etc.) between now and then.
Buy low on Bjorkstrand? (Deep league)
I believe someone asked this about a month ago and I’m a bit shocked Oliver Bjorkstrand’s shooting percentage hasn’t bounced back yet. He’s sitting at an abysmal 4.2 per cent, which is well below his career average. It should normalize eventually but we’re already in mid-December, so I wouldn’t give up much for him if you want to make a move.
Should I trade Caufield for Hedman?
I wouldn’t give up Caufield for Tampa defenceman Victor Hedman right now. As mentioned earlier, Caufield is on pace for well over 40 goals and Hedman is having a down year by his standards. You could try to buy low on Hedman, I just wouldn’t give up someone with as much promise as Caufield.
It’s definitely been a tough year for those two. Moritz Seider has been utilized in more of a defensive role, playing with Ben Chiarot and starting less often in the offensive zone than he did last season. Lucas Raymond has faced challenges in the Detroit Red Wings top six, as Tyler Bertuzzi, Jakub Vrana and now Dylan Larkin have all been out of action for stretches, preventing continuity with his linemates.
I think both will be fine long term and I wouldn’t throw in the towel just yet, but I’m not sure you’ll get a big return on your investment this season.
The only deal I think you could come out ahead is J.T. Miller for Rasmus Dahlin. Based on your defensemen and your league categories, I imagine you’re doing quite well for hits and blocks, but are lacking in points from the blueline. Dahlin will be able to help there, and if the Canucks continue to go downhill and Bo Horvat gets dealt, Miller may lose some value.
Otherwise, if you don’t feel like you are suffering for point production, I would just stand pat.
It all depends on what you’re expecting from Dallas Stars veteran Jamie Benn. He was never going to keep up the near 90-point pace he was scoring at a couple of weeks ago and he’s cooled a bit, with just two points in his last eight. As you mentioned, he’s still getting decent deployment, and if he can even hit 60-65 points, that’s great value from Benn. Remember, this is a player who hasn’t hit even 50 points since 2018-19. I still think he has a chance to post his best campaign in four years, though.
One name that’s caught my eye recently is Brady Skjei. He’s got points in four of his past five games and at least three shots in six of his last seven. At only 23 per cent rostered, Skjei could provide decent value in deep leagues with his category coverage.
I do think they’ll make an impact, but you shouldn’t carry someone who’s taking an active roster spot and can’t play. You’ll have to prioritize who’s most valuable in your league among the three and maybe move on from the one who won’t benefit you most. Or you could try to part with the player who’s furthest away from being healthy, although that is tricky to determine with injuries sometimes. Before you do, though, you should see if there’s anyone willing to take one of them in a trade to recoup some value.
Is Spencer Martin worth it right now? Or would you rather Minny’s Gustavsson?
This is an interesting one. Spencer Martin is miraculously 9-3-1 but giving up almost 3.5 goals per game with an .894 save percentage. He’s also allowed at least three goals in four straight. This doesn’t sound like a sustainable way to keep picking up victories.
Filip Gustavsson, on the other hand, is 5-0-0 with a .948 save percentage in his past five starts and seems poised to start stealing a start here and there from Marc-Andre Fleury, who only boasts an .879 SP over his last five outings. With the Minnesota Wild fighting for a playoff spot, it’s going to be difficult to not give Gustavsson a closer look. Minnesota’s upcoming schedule is also very good for a goaltender, with Chicago, Ottawa, Anaheim and San Jose up next.
I think the answer here depends on what you need. Martin will certainly play more with Demko out, but Gustavsson’s outings will likely be more quality and he has the most upside. If you have a couple of solid other goalies, Gustavsson is probably worth betting on, and if you are desperate for volume and starts, Martin is the way to go.
I’d go with Torey Krug and Vince Dunn. Tony DeAngelo was scratched recently (for personal reasons) and I don’t see him meshing well with John Tortorella over a long season. Ian Cole won’t get as many opportunities to produce as the two I prefer, as he won’t get much power-play time, if any. The Seattle Kraken are one of the higher-scoring teams in the league, so Dunn has upside for points there and Krug is still averaging well over two minutes of ice time with the man advantage.
As for Matt Duchene, it was inevitable his numbers were going to fall this season. He had a shooting percentage of 18.9 last season, which isn’t sustainable, and he’s shooting at a mark of less than half of that now. I would see if someone is interested in buying low.
I can’t see the Carolina Hurricanes sending Pyotr Kochetkov down now with the way he’s played. Sure, I could be wrong, but it would be tough to just drop him back to the minors when he’s probably been their most effective goalie this season and the other two have a history of injuries. Kochetkov is also on a minimal cap hit, which would help the Canes for flexibility around the trade deadline if they could move Antti Raanta, let’s say.
Also, as you mentioned, neither Raanta or Frederik Andersen are signed for next year, and they certainly both won’t be back with Kochetkov locked in for next season with his new deal. It would be an unusual move to send arguably your best goalie who is potentially going to be your starter next season back to the AHL. Whatever happens, I’d hold onto Kochetkov as long as I can.
I don’t think you have much to lose with him as a waiver wire add right now. The opportunity is there with several key Vegas Golden Knights on the shelf with injuries and Daniil Miromanov is coming off a couple of strong games. When everyone is healthy, it’s going to be tough for Miromanov to find a regular spot in the lineup, though.