WINNIPEG – The staring contest is intensifying.
In one corner is Winnipeg Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff, trying to maximize an asset he paid a pretty penny to acquire.
In the other, pending restricted free agent Pierre-Luc Dubois and his camp, looking to find a new team as soon as possible.
Recent developments suggest Dubois has expanded the field from just the Montreal Canadiens to a reported group of five to six teams he’d be willing to sign a contract extension with.
One of those teams is believed to be the Los Angeles Kings, a club on the rise but has been knocked out of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in the first round in consecutive seasons by the Edmonton Oilers.
Complicating matters for the Kings is that they also reside in a Pacific Division that includes the Stanley Cup-champion Vegas Golden Knights.
So, with that in mind, plus the fact that long-time centre and captain Anze Kopitar is one year out from unrestricted free agency and is 36, Dubois, at 24, is the type of budding power forward who could help bolster the chances for a longer run.
Since the Jets did not elect to go to salary arbitration with Dubois, does this mean a trade is nearing?
Not necessarily, though the expectation is that a move will be made on the floor or in the week(s) leading up to the 2023 NHL Draft.
The clock is ticking and decision time is looming on Dubois, Connor Hellebuyck and maybe even Mark Scheifele.
There’s no hard deadline, but one would imagine the trade winds will be blowing hard during the next two weeks here.
Should the Kings come through with the best package to obtain Dubois – whose next deal could be in the $8 million-to-$9 million range – look for the centrepiece to be either Quinton Byfield or Gabe Villardi, while right-handed shooting D-man Sean Durzi would also be a player of interest.
Another player who may have been on the Jets’ wish list – right-handed Swedish D prospect Helge Grans – was recently involved in the three-way deal between the Kings, Philadelphia Flyers and Columbus Blue Jackets.
The next two to three weeks figure to be transformative when it comes to the Jets’ roster makeover.
Whether Dubois or Hellebuyck is the first domino to fall remains to be seen.
On to your questions for the June mailbag:
With Connor Hellebuyck not willing to re-sign and David Rittich being a UFA, who do the Jets target this offseason via trade or free agency? – Matt Smidt
With Hellebuyck surely gone in an upcoming trade, and with him being the hardest to replace of the four rumoured to be traded, what are realistic options for the starting goalie position for the Jets? – Patrick S
The goalie carousel figures to be among the most fascinating positions to monitor league-wide, but there aren’t a ton of teams around the NHL that will be looking to bring in a new starter and backup.
With the Jets not having a natural succession plan within the organization, the new starter and his price tag will also have an impact on the backup job. Hellebuyck has been a workhorse and one of the busiest goalies in the NHL during his eight seasons. If he leaves, it will be interesting to see whether the Jets look for a clear-cut No. 1 or go with a 1A and 1B job share that seems to be happening a bit more these days.
Not a lot of teams are interested in moving their No. 1, so it’s possible the Jets might need to look to open the vault for a free agent. Perhaps someone like Golden Knights netminder Adin Hill.
One of the names I’m curious about is Boston Bruins backup Jeremy Swayman, a restricted free agent who got the start in Game 7 against the Florida Panthers. The future of Linus Ullmark, the expected Vezina Trophy winner, seems a bit less clear and he would bring cost certainty as well – with three more seasons at $5 million.
Alex Lyon helped save the Panthers’ season and is a pending UFA, but he’s likely more in the 1B category, given his history.
Joey D’Accord has done a great job with Coachella Valley of the American Hockey League (a team in the Calder Cup final) and could be a sleeper in the backup role.
With the Buffalo Sabres having a lot of goalies in the system and Devon Levi looking like the goalie of the future (and possibly the present), Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen could be a trade target. Might it be possible that Eric Comrie makes his way back to an organization he spent a lot of time in before inking a two-year deal with the Sabres last summer?
All to say Hellebuyck is going to be incredibly difficult to replace. Can the Jets find the next Alexandar Georgiev, who was able to shine in his first full-time starting gig with the Colorado Avalanche? That has to be the goal.
Should the Jets go after Carter Hart? – Roberto Iacheta
In a vacuum, the Jets should absolutely be making calls to the Philadelphia Flyers about their starting goalie, especially now that it appears Danny Briere is fully leaning into a full rebuild as the new general manager.
But the issue is that the Flyers are looking for futures, should Hart be in play. Hart’s age (25 in August) and contact situation (under contract for one more season at $3.979 million, then a restricted free agent looking for a raise on a long-term extension) heighten the appeal, but it’s hard to see this as a match. That is unless the Jets are interested in potentially moving a top-end prospect, likely a significant roster player and potentially a first-round pick they might acquire in one of those expected deals.
Do you think the Jets would have had more leverage and maximized their return on the forthcoming trades if they would have traded Mark Scheifele and Pierre-Luc Dubois last year? – Devon Spencer
The Jets would have explored Scheifele’s market value last summer and probably didn’t like what the offers were. They’ve also believed in the player for an awfully long time, dating back to him becoming the first draft pick in 2.0 Jets franchise history.
They certainly got calls about Dubois last summer and last season. The Jets were a first-place team in January, so I think there would have been outrage over any consideration of trading either of their top two centres.
Certainly, by the time the trade deadline arrived, the situation had shifted to the pursuit of a wild-card spot. However, Dubois was on his way to having his best offensive season and finishing one shy of his career high for goals, while Scheifele was well on his way to a career-best 42 goals.
Does that mean their value could have been maximized before the deadline? Possibly, but after missing the playoffs in 2021-22, the Jets didn’t want to risk missing out again in 2022-23.
An acquiring team having Scheifele for two playoff runs may have meant a slightly more enticing offer, but plenty of clubs that fell short in these playoffs would still view both Scheifele and Dubois as players who could help teams move forward.
Scheifele has cost certainty for one more season, while Dubois needs a new deal and is likely looking for a long-term pact, which complicates things for any potential trade partner – unless you’re confident you can extend him.
And most of those teams interested wouldn’t have been looking forward to dealing with the pending uncertainty of this summer, either.
Both players are talented and would have high value to teams looking to improve. Dubois’ age (soon to be 25) will be a benefit, while Scheifele’s age (31) could complicate the potential of an extension for big dollars, but he takes great care of himself and will continue to be highly motivated for a productive season, knowing what is at stake.
Should Jets fans expect to receive more for Dubois and/or Hellebuyck this summer than they could have received if dealt at the trade deadline? If not, why not wait for the trade deadline to make a decision on 37? Also, most summers we hear of all the anticipated off-season roster changes (defence, Wheeler, Scheifele last summer). Will you be shocked if training camp opens with 55/26/37 still on the roster? – Craig Zamzow
Lots to chew on here. Will tackle this as best I can.
Let’s start with Dubois. He’s already privately expressed a desire, so finding a way to get him on a one-year deal (like in the second club-elected salary arbitration window) is a risky proposition.
Dubois could be a candidate for an offer sheet and if the Jets chose to match, they wouldn’t be able to trade him for a calendar year, essentially walking him to UFA status. Not matching would bring only future assets or less of a package than they should be able to acquire if Dubois is moved during the next few weeks.
Even if the Jets were able to avoid the offer-sheet scenario, they would be rolling the dice on Dubois staying healthy and being productive. Although it’s true Dubois has been a point per game producer in the first half of each of the past two seasons, he hasn’t sustained that level down the stretch.
Would that entice teams or leave them wary? It’s irrelevant because the Jets need to move him now to get a better return.
As for Hellebuyck, he’s already under contract (at $6.17 million), so that’s one less obstacle to work through. However, in order to maximize the return for the elite netminder, nailing down the terms of an extension would probably come in handy – especially if the Jets were considering a sign-and-trade scenario for Hellebuyck (and Dubois, in all likelihood).
Keeping Hellebuyck to start the season might be the best chance for the Jets to remain competitive and battle for a playoff spot. But how would the fan base feel about the Jets moving Hellebuyck before the NHL trade deadline if they were above the line at the time of the deal?
One could argue that teams accumulating cap space might have an easier time absorbing the cap hit (or bringing in a third-party broker) later in the season, but for me, the Jets need clarity on these situations sooner than later.
That’s not even taking into consideration the fact that if any of those players suffered an injury, the Jets could lose the opportunity to bring in an asset in a deal or be forced to accept a lesser package.
Moving on, yes, I would be shocked if all of Hellebuyck, Scheifele and Blake Wheeler were in the lineup for the Jets on opening night. The difference between projections of an off-season of significant change in prior years to this one is the timing. The Jets are out of runway.
Barring contract extensions, they run the risk of these players departing as unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2024 without taking action. That’s why resolution should be just around the corner, relatively speaking.
What are your thoughts on the three other guys with one year remaining, Dylan DeMelo, Brenden Dillon and Nino Niederreiter? Will they either be re-signed or moved at next year’s deadline, when their value could be higher? – Greg Friesen
Little doubt that Jets GM Cheveldayoff would have an interest in extending all three of these players.
DeMelo, 30, plays a top-pairing role and has been a consistent partner for Josh Morrissey, and he also is coming off the most productive offensive season of his career.
Dillon, who turns 33 in November, is a physical presence who logs big minutes on the second pairing, and Niederreiter, 31 in September, provided an offensive boost and a willingness to crash the crease with regularity.
All three are high-character individuals who play a prominent role, which would make them valuable to the Jets and also make them potential trade targets if extensions don’t transpire.
My best guess is that at least one will be extended before the season begins and two before the deadline, while one of the two D-men could be on the move as early as the next week or two.
With the Jets wanting to retool after the trades of Hellebuyck, Dubois and Scheifele, would this pledge to compete imply that the return for these players should include a goalie and at least one top-six centreman? – Duane Woods
Whether it’s in the trades themselves or free agency, the Jets will absolutely be looking for two goalies, likely two centremen and to upgrade the defence.
How that all shakes down is anyone’s guess.
As mentioned previously, keeping pending UFA forward Vladislav Namestnikov in the fold would provide a safety valve at centre, and could also be used on the wing if the Jets found other options in the middle via trades or free agency.
It will also be interesting to see if the Jets might consider moving Cole Perfetti to centre for next season, but that could also depend on what transpires.
Do you envision a scenario where the Jets move into the top 10 at the draft? If so, what team do you see moving their pick and what type of package goes back? – Brent Bernas
It will be extremely difficult for the Jets to move from 18th overall into the top 10. Teams value top-10 picks and, generally, there isn’t a ton of movement with those picks.
Lots of folks are curious about the Montreal Canadiens’ pick at fifth overall, but it’s hard to envision a scenario where that’s in play – even if Dubois is on the table for a potential deal to the team in his home province.
If the Jets feel strongly enough about a player still on the board in the top 10, it’s possible they put a package together, but that would likely include the 18th pick and something else significant.
The Jets are probably looking to add another first-rounder in one of their trades, but it’s far more likely it would be outside the top 10 and closer to Nos. 20-to-32, though anything is possible.
Do you think the Jets’ lack of identity might come from the “draft the best player available” approach? What’s the vision and how are they working toward it? In a crude analogy, if you have a business and all you hire is accountants, because they are the best available at the time, you’ll be great at math and numbers, but not much else! Sales, reception, warehouse people to load trucks. Lots of jobs to do! – Ryan Wakshinski
It’s an interesting theory, but most NHL teams employ the “draft the best player available” approach.
Some are successful, some are not.
Teams are always trying to improve in this area. There also could be some altering of opinions on how much teams value draft picks after the Golden Knights had one drafted player (defenceman Nicolas Hague) on their championship roster, and the Florida Panthers had just three (centres Aleksander Barkov and Anton Lundell, and defenceman Aaron Ekblad) suit up in Stanley Cup Final games. But I digress.
“Best player available” is open to interpretation, but even with the advancements in analytics, it’s important to remember that every pick is a projection and it’s tough to know what a 17- or 18-year-old player is eventually going to blossom into – or how long it will take to reach their ceiling.
Sure, the Jets have some qualities they covet in drafting a player (hockey sense being one of them); they’ve chosen a variety of skill sets over the years, whether in the first round or later. The Jets have always said they don’t draft by passport and that makes a lot of sense – there’s no sense limiting your options.
But would it make sense to bring in a few more players with roots on the Prairies if the skill sets are comparable? Absolutely.
Will they abandon the best player available approach to do so? Absolutely not.
If the players are a coin flip, they could draft by positional need, but since it’s tough to know with certainty what a team will look like three to five years down the road, going with the highest-rated player is going to continue to be the choice for the Jets and virtually every other team in the NHL.
As for the identity portion, roster construction is certainly part of the issue for the Jets, but I don’t see a direct correlation to the draft or the approach the organization takes when selecting players. The identity has been tough for the Jets to pin down since the departure of Dustin Byfuglien and several other physical players in the fall of 2019.
Forging more of an identity is going to be a priority for the Jets, beginning with training camp in September.
Do you ever hear rumblings among the NHL Canadian owners about the fundamental unfairness of a salary cap that doesn’t account for different provincial/state tax rates for players’ incomes? For example, salary for players from franchises in Florida, Texas, Nevada ends up netting players considerably more take-home pay than players earning the same nominal salary in California, Ontario and New York (for example). Owners in higher tax regimes must surely be open to a salary cap that accounts for differing state/provincial tax rates? Such discrepancies must also factor into how attractive different franchises are to players as contracts are negotiated. – Glen MacLean
This is a logical question, especially pertinent after both Stanley Cup participants reside in an income-tax-free state and a third team (the Dallas Stars) in that same category was in the Final Four.
I don’t pretend to be in touch with many owners, but I don’t get the sense that it’s a hot-button issue for when the next collective bargaining agreement will be negotiated.
Why? Because it would require a complex formula to try to find common ground for owners in all of the different provinces and states.
Certain places are always going to have a bit of a competitive advantage in this area, but there will be others that have other tangible advantages of their own when it comes to attracting players.
Different players value different things, and while the tax rate can’t be discounted, it’s not always a determining factor for the majority of the 700-plus players in the NHL.
Might there come a time down the road when something like you’re suggesting is considered? Absolutely.
But I don’t see it on the front burner right now. Building a consistent winning program or having the ability to provide opportunities for players who have previously been blocked on the depth chart are two important ways for all teams to attract players.