Last week we analyzed the organizational depth, draft capital, prospect pool, and potential needs for the Edmonton Oilers for your consideration in the lead up to the trade deadline.
Vancouver is up next…and there’s a lot to digest with the organization.
Here’s my mid-season analysis of the Canucks:
ROSTER AND SALARIES
Note: Miller’s contract expires following the 2029-30 season and includes a full no-move clause the first four years, followed by a modified no-move clause in the last four years of the deal.
INJURED RESERVE
DEAD CAP
NHL FORWARDS
Like most teams in the league, the Canucks have a “core four” who contribute the majority of team offence up front. Bo Horvat, Elias Pettersson, JT Miller, and Andrei Kuzmenko have contributed 182 points. The rest of the forwards have scored 122 points combined.
Here are my thoughts on the forward group:
Bo Horvat: Horvat is used in all situations. He leads the forwards with just shy of 21 minutes in ice time per game. His shooting percentage is likely not sustainable over the course of an entire season (22 per cent), but he’s positioned himself to potentially score 50 goals this season. He’s also one of the Canucks’ most reliable three-zone forwards. He takes key face-offs and he’s a plus-1. The pending UFA will be traded before the deadline and it’s too bad the Canucks find themselves in the scenario they do with Horvat. The homegrown captain will be missed and contending teams are lining up to acquire him.
J.T. Miller: Miller needs a reset. The season has gotten away from him emotionally. I appreciate his offence and he is on pace for between 75-80 points. It’s a step back from last year, however (99). More perplexing is the fact his overall detail has completely gone off the rails. His off the puck effort as F1 on the forecheck and tracking back to assist defensively has been dismal. He hasn’t been reliable playing centre on any Canucks line and spent a lot of the year on the wing. Half of his points come on the power-play and he has only scored 20 points at even strength the entire season. He’s also a minus-16, which proves just how disjointed his season has been. Miller is just behind Horvat in average TOI. To say the Canucks need more from Miller is a massive understatement.
Full disclosure: I felt Vancouver would be wise to extend Miller, at the right price, last summer, but not at the cost of losing Horvat. It’s going to be very difficult for the Canucks to trade Miller before his new deal (and NMC) kick in this summer.
He might not be a 100-point centreman, but he’s a better player than he has displayed this season. He needs to get out of his own way emotionally and display better leadership.
Elias Pettersson: In my opinion, Pettersson is the most reliable all-round forward for the Canucks this season. He’s used in all situations, leads the team in scoring (54 points), averages nearly 20 minutes of ice time, and he’s a plus-8. Surprisingly, Pettersson also leads the forwards with 50 shot blocks.
I’m keeping a close eye on Pettersson’s contract scenario. He becomes an RFA after the 2023-24 season and his qualifying offer is set at $8.82 million, but I’m positive he will be looking for a long-term deal that is very likely going to be in the $10 million range.
Andrei Kuzmenko: He has transitioned nicely to the NHL. He plays a heavy game from the hash marks down in the offensive zone, and he’s a load to defend around the crease. He’s not a burner in open ice, but has been improving his off the puck detail and defensive zone awareness. Kuzmenko is set to become a UFA after this season. If the Canucks can’t get him extended, I expect him to be moved at the deadline. His cap hit ($950,000) is very affordable, especially considering he is on pace for 30 goals and over 70 points.
Brock Boeser: Things have not improved enough to justify Boeser’s salary ($6.65M). His style of play, and overall impact, is disjointed. It’s somewhat positive that he is on pace for around 20 goals and over 50 points, but consider he’s also a minus-14 and lacks the pace to track up and down the ice to provide three zone detail. He’s on the books through 2024-25. Canucks management granted his representatives permission to seek a trade several weeks ago now, but it’s hard to imagine Vancouver not having to retain a portion of Boeser’s salary in a trade.
Conor Garland: Another player who is not producing enough in relation to his contract. Garland has scored eight goals and 14 assists, with six of his points coming on the power play. That means he has only contributed 16 points outside of the power play. Considering his awful minus-10 rating, the team isn’t getting enough out of Garland. Maybe all he needs a reset as well. He scored 19 goals and 33 assists last year and was a plus-18. When he’s at his best he can be elusive in small areas and creative off the rush, but his game has, unfortunately, fallen off a cliff this year.
Ilya Mikheyev: Mikheyev has played to his identity. It’s possible he will score north of 20 goals and he’s used in all situations. He plays fast. He’s low maintenance, and skates around 17 minutes per game. With 12 goals and 14 assists with a plus-3 he’s one of the few Canucks who has provided relatively consistent effort and results this season.
Curtis Lazar: I’m not sure what to make from Lazar’s game. He’s averaging around 12 minutes per game, with the bulk of his minutes coming at even strength and some secondary penalty-kill. Historically, Lazar has averaged around one point per four games played, but he’s not close this season, with just one goal and one assist overall. I don’t require Lazar to be a “go to “ forward offensively, but his overall game needs more detail. I feel like he needs to know what his role is. It’s up to him to create a consistent identity down the stretch. His pace is fine, he competes, and he isn’t shy about going to the hard areas – but what has he really accomplished so far this season?
DEPTH PLAYERS WITH SIMILAR CONTRIBUTION
Dakota Joshua, Sheldon Dries, Jack Studnicka, Lane Pederson and Nils Aman have all had some positive moments in the first half. There’s a mix of size, decent speed, and reliable compete with this group. The reality, however, is NHL teams need to get more out of their secondary group than what the Canucks have gotten from this set of forwards. With all due respect, this group of players are barely NHL quality. They are a mix of 12th and 13th forwards on most NHL teams.
Stats to consider from these players (combined):
142 GP, 17 G, 15 A, 32 PTS, -33
VASILY PODKOLZIN AND NILS HOGLANDER
The Canucks made a wise decision moving both Podkolzin and Hoglander to, AHL, Abbotsford. Both prospects appeared to be drowning on the Canucks roster. The last thing the organization needs is these players to get away from them – development wise.
Consider the following stats – year over year in the NHL – for Hoglander and Podkolzin: