At the mid-point of the regular season, every NHL team will be conducting pro and amateur meetings in the coming days. Some have already completed the process.
Pro scouts have been busy assembling lists of “priority” players in their territories. They will be recommending players to target for trade in hopes of improving their NHL roster. In some cases, they will advise upper management to steer clear of certain players and look elsewhere to fill a need.
My goal in this article — and others in the days ahead — is to provide a look into the conversations that go on behind closed doors at scouting meetings.
Ultimately, I’m putting you – our reader – in the general manager’s chair.
It’s my job, as a scouting director, to provide you the pros and cons of adding or subtracting from our roster and organization. I’m going to try and be as thorough as possible. At the end of the process, I will conclude with my recommendations. It’s up to you to decide how to best position our group and organization moving forward.
Here are my observations, and recommendations, for the Toronto Maple Leafs:
PROSPECTS
My experience in these kind of meetings is that the Director of Player Development generally begins with a status update of our prospects. For me, when I was in Florida with the Panthers, I worked closely with ex-Leaf Bryan McCabe on these sorts of things.
Without breaking down every player in the system, I have selected five of Toronto’s top prospects who I believe would be of interest to other NHL clubs and what role they project to play when they arrive.
Dennis Hildeby, Goaltender
Huge in the net (6-foot-5, 209 pounds). Better than average athleticism and coordination for his stature. Good feet. Moves laterally effectively. Trending towards second-tier NHL starter.
Easton Cowan, Forward
The Leafs’ first-round pick in 2023 (28th overall), Cowan is scoring at a very high rate in the OHL with 16 goals and 34 assists in 28 games. Cowan plays quick and fast. He’s not shy about battling in the trenches and driving to the net. He projects as a middle-six forward who can be deployed in a variety of roles and produce, at worst, secondary offence.
Fraser Minten, Forward
Minten started this season with the Leafs after a solid training camp and he will be turning pro full time next season. He was traded from Kamloops to Saskatoon in the WHL shortly after Toronto sent him back to junior. Minten has produced seven goals and 16 assists in 17 WHL games this season. He projects as a third line NHL forward who can penalty kill and pitch in with some secondary offence as well.
Topi Niemela, Defenceman
Niemela is having a nice season at the AHL level with the Toronto Marlies. The right-shot blueliner is best described as a two-way transitional defenceman who can quarterback the power play. Niemela has produced six goals and 15 assists in 31 games.
Noah Chadwick, Defenceman
Chadwick is having a nice year playing for Lethbridge in the WHL, where he’s part of the leadership group. His offence has spiked dramatically and he’s being used in all situations. The 6-foot-4, 201-pound, left shot blueliner projects as a two-way defenceman at the pro level. He’s capable with the puck on his stick and his skating continues to evolve.
Overall Prospect Value
Toronto’s cupboards aren’t flush with prospects at every position who project to be NHL players. This group of five has a legitimate chance to make it, but it’s important to keep in mind that other teams will value these prospects differently than the Leafs do.
The fact the Leafs organization doesn’t have a ton of depth puts the team in a bit of a position of weakness. If they were to trade out one of these prospects, there isn’t a sure fire second layer in the pipeline. They also don’t have a ton of draft picks to rebuild that pipeline with.
DRAFT CAPITAL
The Leafs’ draft board isn’t ideal. Over the next three drafts the organization currently owns the following draft slots:
The going rate to acquire top end players at the trade deadline always starts with a first round pick. It’s not inconceivable to think a player like Calgary Flames defenceman Chris Tanev would cost, at least, a first-round pick. And there’s a real chance there could be a bidding war for Tanev that will drive up the cost of acquiring the shot blocking warrior.
If Toronto trades away another first-round pick this season it will further strain the organization’s lack of prospect depth. It’s a risky proposition.
ANALYZING THE CURRENT MAPLE LEAFS
Before making any grand conclusions about what the Leafs should, or shouldn’t, do with their prospect pool around the deadline, we first have to look at what shape the pro roster is in.
The Forwards
It’s important to review trends, habits, and results of a team over a long period of time. It’s never wise to judge a group on a five-, or 10-game segment.
With that in mind, here are some things to consider about Toronto’s forwards:
• The Leafs, like all teams, are built around a core of players. Their “core four” forwards provide the bulk of the scoring — how Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner and William Nylander perform on a nightly basis drives results.
• Over the past 15-game segment, Toronto has matched up against eight non-playoff teams and seven teams in playoff position. Their record in those games is 6-7-2.
Here’s how the “core four” have performed in that segment: